The answer seems affirmative. We compare currency carry trades with an investment strategy based on currency fundamentals: taking a long (short) position in undervalued (overvalued) currencies. Carry trades have high risk-adjusted returns, but are subject to "crash risk." In contrast, the fundamental strategy has lower risk-adjusted returns, but is less prone to crash risk, because the realization of crash risk coincides with corrections towards fundamentals. In particular, the fundamental strategy outperformed carry trades during the recent global financial crisis. Building on these results, we present early warning indicators for potential turbulence in the currency market.
Your plain-English guide to currency trading Currency Trading For Dummies is a hands-on, user-friendly guide that explains how the foreign exchange (ForEx) market works and how you can become a part of it. Currency trading has many benefits, but it also has fast-changing financial-trading avenues. ForEx markets are always moving. So how do you keep up? With this new edition of Currency Trading For Dummies, you'll get the expert guidance you've come to know and expect from the trusted For Dummies brand—now updated with the latest information on the topic. Inside, you'll find an easy-to-follow introduction to the global/ForEx market that explains its size, scope, and players; a look at the major economic drivers that influence currency values; and the lowdown on how to interpret data and events like a pro. Plus, you'll discover different types of trading styles and make a concrete strategy and game plan before you act on anything. Covers currency trading conventions and tools Provides an insider's look at key characteristics of successful currency traders Explains why it's important to be organized and prepared Offers guidance on trading pitfalls to avoid and risk management rules to live by Whether you're just getting started out in the foreign exchange market or an experienced trader looking to diversify your portfolio, Currency Trading For Dummies sets you up for trading success.
''In summary, the book is valuable as a textbook both at the advanced undergraduate level and at the graduate level. It is also very useful for the economist who wants to be brought up-to-date on theoretical and empirical research on exchange rate behaviour.'' ""Journal of International Economics""
This paper estimates a speculative attack model of currency crises in order to identify the role of economic fundamentals and any early warning signals of a potential currency crisis. The data from the Mexican economy was used to illustrate the model. Based on the results, a deterioration in fundamentals appears to have generated high one-step-ahead probabilities for the regime changes during the sample period 1982-1994. Particularly, increases in inflation differentials, appreciations of the real exchange rate, foreign reserve losses, expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, and increases in the share of short-term foreign currency debt appear to have contributed to the market pressures and regime changes in that period.
Would you like to learn to trade Forex like a fund manager? With the method explained in this book, you can do it from your home studio. Hi, I am David; I have over 25 years of experience in financial markets and two as a fund manager.Forex is the most exciting and dynamic market; with its 4 trillion dollars traded each day, it is the largest financial market in the world, and that's why it is also the most speculated.Trading with currencies is very easy, you have only to make a Google search, and you will find many brokers who will be happy to open an account for you, even with a deposit of only a few dollars. What is not so easy, it is to get constant profits month after month.With "Forex with Fundamental Analysis" you will discover a new way of seeing the Forex, of analysing a currency pair. You will learn the dynamics that really move the currencies.You will understand the motivations behind specific movements; you will get a clear analysis of each currency, and you will know how to use it to your advantage. It is not certainly an indicator that makes a currency pair will rise or fall, but much larger force.You will learn a correct and well-defined method to trade a currency pair. You will follow the trail of the big speculators, by distancing yourself from the mass of small fish that every day get eaten by sharks that swim in the "forex ocean."A method that comes from over 25 years of experience in financial markets, even as a fund manager for a small Italian investment bank, and which I imported and adapted to my way to trade, and that you too can use.At first glance, probably some concepts may seem complicated, but I assure you that with time and practice you will assimilate them without any problems, and it will become natural to apply them in your forex analysis.You just have to stop seeing a currency pair as a single entity, like a price, and start, instead, to see it as two opposing economies because a currency is the mirror of its economy. You do not have to see Eur-Usd as a single market, but as the Eurozone economy versus the American economy. This concept is the starting point of the entire analysis that you will learn reading this e-Book."Forex with Fundamental Analysis" is an e-Book that will change your way to trade in the forex market.What you will learn reading "Forex Fundamental Analysis": - to compare two economies;- to trace fundamental supports and resistances;- to read reports and minutes;- to make a macro-data analysis;- to correctly analyse a currency pair;- to use subjective probability to select the best trade entry;- to set the stop-loss using the Value-at-Risk;- and other important aspects with clear examples.If you are a novice, you have little experience with Forex trading and would like to learn this activity, or you are a trader that, despite continuous study and constancy in following the currencies, you are not fully satisfied with the results obtained so far, "Forex Fundamental Analysis" is the starting point for your career as a Forex trader
Proven currency-specific trading strategies from one of today's top currency analysts "If you trade currency, then you need to have this book on your desk. It's the only book you need for technical analysis of the fastest-moving market on the planet." -Rob Booker, Currency Trader, W.R. Booker & Company "In plain English, Schlossberg lays out the basics in using technical analysis to trade foreign currencies, from the fundamentals of how the FX market works to the variety of technical strategies and trade management techniques traders can employ. Along the way, he offers entertaining examples and observations as well as simple, easy-to-read charts and diagrams. Anyone interested in getting started in the hugely popular FX market would do well to begin with this book." -Sarah Rudolph, Executive Editor, SFO Magazine "Boris Schlossberg has done a fabulous job with this book. It's packed with insightful tips and strategies that are sure to save traders a lot of time and money." -Cory Janssen, CoFounder, Investopedia.com "Schlossberg's book is a great resource for traders just starting out in currency markets. His focus on simplicity is critical for a new trader's education on how to make money." -Andrew B. Busch, Global FX Strategist, BMO Financial Group
FXstreet.Com’s 2013 Best Book Award! The Sensible Guide to Forex: Safer, Smarter Ways to Survive and Prosper from the Start is written for the risk averse, mainstream retail investor or trader seeking a more effective way to tap forex markets to improve returns and hedge currency risk. As the most widely held currencies are being devalued, they're taking your portfolio down with them—unless you're prepared. For traders, the book focuses on reducing the high risk, complexity, and time demands normally associated with forex trading. For long-term investors, it concentrates on how to hedge currency risk by diversifying portfolios into the strongest currencies for lower risk and higher capital gains and income. The usual forex materials don't provide practical answers for most retail traders or longer term investors. Virtually all forex trading materials focus on time-consuming, high-leverage, high-risk methods at which most traders fail. Materials about long-term investing in foreign assets rarely take into account the prospects of the related currency. A falling currency can turn an otherwise good investment into a bad one. Throughout the book, the emphasis is on planning and executing only low risk, high potential yield trades or investments and avoiding serious losses at all costs. Packed with richly illustrated examples every step of the way and including additional appendices and references to online resources, the book is the ultimate guide to forex for retail traders and investors seeking to tap forex markets for better currency diversification and income. Provides traders with safer, smarter, less complex and time-consuming ways to trade forex with higher odds of success. These include the use of such increasingly popular new instruments like forex binary options and social trading accounts that mimic expert traders. Shows investors how to identify the currencies most likely to hold or increase their value, and provides a wealth of ideas about how to apply that knowledge to a long-term, low-maintenance portfolio for both income and capital appreciation. Helps anyone seeking an asset class with low correlation to other markets by explaining how the very nature of forex markets means that regardless of market conditions there's always a playable trend somewhere, regardless of what other asset markets are doing, and how to find and exploit it for a short-term trade or a long-term investment in a currency pair, stock, bond, or other asset The Sensible Guide to Forex is only book that teaches mainstream risk averse investors and traders how to build a portfolio that’s diversified by currency exposure as well as by asset class and sector, via a variety of safer, simpler methods to suit different needs, risk tolerances, and levels of expertise. Written by Cliff Wachtel, a 30+ year financial market writer, advisor, and analyst, The Sensible Guide to Forex offers practical solutions to the above dilemmas faced by every serious, prudent investor. A must own for any informed investor-but don’t take out word for it - see advanced reviews at: http://thesensibleguidetoforex.com/review/
The current financial crisis provides a valuable occasion for the world to re-examine the grand statements of wisdom which dominate the financial world for a long time. The impact is extremely serious as a result of the convergence of a number of factors such as huge current account deficits of the United States, globalization, deregulation, loose monetary policy, and excessive liquidity. This book seeks to address the critical issues in deregulation, derivatives, leveraging, remuneration systems, and rating agencies.This book will also examine Asia's response and why Asian economies have been less affected by the global financial crisis. Are corporate governance, culture, management styles or even a state-led model the main reasons? Would the Asian sovereign funds help to be the last line of defense against the excesses of the crisis? Is the US$80 billion Asian crisis fund envisaged as the first instance of a coordinated East Asian response to the crisis and would this truly underpin the creation of an East Asian regional order? This book reaffims the need for banks and financial institutions to provide value-adding services, exercise prudence and due diligence and pay due regard for societal interest.
This rigorous textbook tames technicalities and makes even the most complex models accessible to students. Its unique two-tier structure makes the book attractive for undergraduates, graduates and researchers alike. In fact, the coverage is primarily directed to undergraduate students and is mainly confined to graphic analysis and to some elementary algebra. Further, each chapter has its own mathematical appendix, in which (i) the topics treated in the text are examined at a level suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates and researchers, and (ii) generalizations and/or topics not treated in the text (including some at the cutting edge of research) are formally examined. The new edition has been thoroughly revised and updated to reflect the latest research on international finance. This book deals with the financial side of international economics and covers all aspects of international finance. There are many books and articles by exponents of alternative points of view. I know of no other book that provides the scope, balance, objectivity and rigor of this book. the late Professor Jerome L. Stein, Brown University This book is a second edition of a volume on international finance first published in 2001. Like Giancarlo’s other books in International Economics, this book is organised as a two-books-in-one by distributing the material between text and appendices. The text provides coverage suitable for an undergraduate course while the mathematical appendices provide coverage of the topics at the frontier of the discipline and suitable for advanced undergraduate or graduate students in an international finance and international macroeconomics course. This edition updates the earlier volume and covers all the classic topics as well as the more recent advances in the theory and modelling of international finance. It includes some discussion of the empirical testing of these theories and where appropriate reference to the extensive empirical literature is also provided. This book is a valuable addition to the bookshelf of any serious International Finance Scholar and provides a treasure chest of material for any quality international finance course. Professor Pasquale M Sgro, Deakin University Giancarlo Gandolfo is one of the profession's most gifted textbook authors on mathematical modeling and international economics. His revised International Finance and Open-Economy Macroeconomics is remarkable for its scope and clarity. The book covers the older and intertemporal approaches, and topics that are usually left out of graduate treatments (the chapter on balance-of-payments accounting is a gem). Gandolfo's two-tier approach of first developing topics with graphs and basic algebra and then providing rigorous mathematics for each topic makes the book ideal for advanced undergraduate and graduate classes. Professor Michael D. Goldberg, University of New Hampshire
