This study is part of a series of research papers that explore the biological, social, and economic aspects of British Columbia's mountain pine beetle epidemic. The main purpose of this study was to apply and refine a model methodology to evaluate the effectiveness of landscape-scale bark beetle-management activities in reducing losses to mountain pine beetle, and to analyze the potential spread of the beetle across the study area. Specifically, the goal of this project was to address the question: what would be the likely trajectory and impacts from the current beetle outbreak under a range of alternative beetle-management regimes?
In July 2006, more than 170 researchers and managers from the United States, Canada, and Mexico convened in Boulder, Colorado, to discuss the state of the science in environmental threat assessment. This two-volume general technical report compiles peer-reviewed papers that were among those presented during the 3-day conference. Papers are organized by four broad topical sections--Land, Air and Water, Fire, and Pests/Biota--and are divided into syntheses and case studies. Land topics include discussions of forest land conversion and soil quality as well as investigations of species' responses to climate change. Air and water topics include discussions of forest vulnerability to severe weather and storm damage modeling. Fire topics include discussions of wildland arson and wildfire risk management as well as how people precieve wildfire risk and uncertainty. Pests/biota topics include discussions of risk mapping and probabilistic risk assessments as well as investigations of individual threats, including the southern pine beetle and Phytophora alni. Ultimately, this publication will foster exchange and collaboration between those who develop knowledge and tools for threat assessment and those who are responsible for managing forests and rangelands.
The main goal of this project was to adapt existing mountain pine beetle (MPB) decision-support tools to incorporate climatic suitability information to refine the spatial characterization of present climate and to support assessments of future climate. These tools include susceptibility and risk rating systems, the MPBSim stand-scale MPB population model, the landscape-scale SELES-MPB population model, and graph-based connectivity methods. We made significant advances on all of these, resulting in a suite of tools with increased capabilities and generality. During the course of this project, we also provided decisions support in the specific areas of study, in particular Dawson Creek and central-western Alberta. The basis of the climatic suitability was the work of A. Carroll et al. (2004) which produced estimates of MPB climatic suitability in five classes across western Canada, for historical, existing and future climates. Future climate information was derived from global circulation models such as the CGCM model. They input general climate information into the BioSim tool, in conjunction with topography and other variables relevant to downscaling for MPB, to produce the MPB climatic suitability maps. We used these maps to create an adaptation of the MPB susceptibility and risk rating system that replaced the coarser location factor (based on latitude, longitude and elevation) with MPB climatic suitability. It is important to note that the MPB climatic suitability refers only to climatic conditions relevant for MPB survival and reproduction, while the susceptibility rating system incorporates pine host information. We also modified MPBSim, a stand-scale population model, to utilize the MPB climatic suitability information. In previous applications, MPBSim was adapted to local conditions via a calibration process using local weather information. In some senses, this calibration process resulted in a reasonably precise adjustment to local conditions. However, it was also fairly labour intensive and didn't account as well for spatial variability. Our approach here was to use climatic suitability to both increase spatial precision as well as produce outputs that can be readily adapted to different stand and landscapes. The SELES-MPB landscape-scale population model scales MPBSim dynamics to broad spatial areas. We modified this tool to utilize the revised MPBSim output. This supports more rapid adaptation to other landscapes, as well as allows examination of potential effects of future climate. Our Dawson Creek analysis indicated that beetle management in the Dawson Creek area could significantly affect the spread and impact of the beetle outbreak over the next 10 years, provided that high levels of fell and burn and survey efforts are maintained. Estimated impacts are significantly affected by external pressure from the main outbreak, as estimated using the provincial-scale BCMPB projection. If mountain pine beetle populations can be held low until the main outbreak subsides (which will likely occur within the next five years due to availability of hosts), management should be able to curtail major losses in the Dawson Creek area. In areas with new or no current MPB attack, especially in areas within the expanding range, there is relatively high uncertainty of how the MPB may spread, such as in central-western Alberta. We developed graph-based connectivity methods to assess the spatial pattern of high susceptibility hosts across broad regions, under historic, existing or future climates. This information has been useful to help prioritize and rank stands for treatment in areas of imminent or future risk, and to identify areas for which treatment has no benefit.
The current mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreak exceeds any recorded infestation and is considered a threat to pine species in the boreal and eastern Canadian forest ecosystems. Previous studies have shown that moderate weather and successful fire suppression create prime conditions for MPB growth, which is affecting novel forest habitat. From 2008 to 2010, the Canadian Forest Service (CFS) conducted late spring surveys of MPB infestations in the Peace Region of British Columbia to determine changes in population and infestation levels based on attack and brood densities in infested trees. During 2009 and 2010, similar data was collected by the Alberta Sustainable Resource Development (SRD) on post-winter MPB survival in north-central Alberta. Overwintering population success was determined based on two rating systems of R-values: the Canadian Forest Service Forest Insect and Disease Survey (FIDS) system of the CFS, and the SRD system. R-value was calculated by summing all live mountain pine beetles of various life stages for every plot. The British Columbia and Alberta survey data (the R-values) were combined to determine the distribution of overwintering population success. During 2009 and 2010, the overwintering MPB population success in the Peace Region of British Columbia and adjacent Alberta was based on interpolated maps of SRD ratings of infestations. For comparison, a map for each rating system was created from the 2010 surveys of British Columbia and Alberta.
"This book presents a synthesis of published information on mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins [Coleoptera: Scolytidae]) biology and management with an emphasis on lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud. var. latifolia Engelm.) forests of western Canada. Intended as a reference for researchers as well as forest managers, the book covers three main subject areas: mountain pine beetle biology, management, and socioeconomic concerns. The chapters on biology cover taxonomy, life history and habits, distribution, insect-host tree interactions, development and survival, epidemiology, and outbreak history. The management section covers management strategy, survey and detection, proactive and preventive management, and decision support tools. The chapters on socioeconomic aspects include an economic examination of management programs and the utilization of post-beetle salvage timber in solid wood, panelboard, pulp and paper products."--Publisher's description.
