The recent global financial crisis has forced a re-examination of risk transmission in the financial sector and how it affects financial stability. Current macroprudential policy and surveillance (MPS) efforts are aimed establishing a regulatory framework that helps mitigate the risk from systemic linkages with a view towards enhancing the resilience of the financial sector. This paper presents a forward-looking framework ("Systemic CCA") to measure systemic solvency risk based on market-implied expected losses of financial institutions with practical applications for the financial sector risk management and the system-wide capital assessment in top-down stress testing. The suggested approach uses advanced contingent claims analysis (CCA) to generate aggregate estimates of the joint default risk of multiple institutions as a conditional tail expectation using multivariate extreme value theory (EVT). In addition, the framework also helps quantify the individual contributions to systemic risk and contingent liabilities of the financial sector during times of stress.
Black and Scholes (1973) and Merton (1974) (hereafter referred to as BSM) introduced the contingent claim approach (CCA) to the valuation of corporate debt and equity. The BSM modeling framework is also named the 'structural' approach to risky debt valuation. The CCA approach considers all stakeholders of the corporation as holding contingent claims on the assets of the corporation. Each claim holder has different priorities, maturities and conditions for payouts. It is based on the principle that all the assets belong to all the liability holders.In the structural approach the arrival of the default event relies on economic arguments for why firms default as it is explicitly related to the dynamics of the economic value of the firm. A standard structural model of default timing assumes that a corporation defaults when its assets drop to a sufficiently low level relative to its liabilities.The BSM modeling framework gives the basic fundamental version of the structural model where default is assumed to occur when the net asset value of the firm at the maturity of the pure-discount debt becomes negative, i.e., market value of the assets of the firm falls below the market value of the firm's liabilities. In a regime of limited liability, the shareholders of the firm have the option to default on the firm's debt. Equity can be viewed as a European call option on the firm's assets with a strike price equal to the face value of the firm's debt. Actually, CCA can be used to value all the components of the firm's liabilities. Option pricing models are used to value stocks, bonds, and many other types of corporate claims.Different versions of the model correspond to different assumptions about the conditions when a firm defaults. Merton (1974) assumes that the firm only defaults at the maturity date of the firm's outstanding debt when the net asset value of the firm, in market value terms, is negative. Others introduce other conditions for default. Also, different authors introduce more complicated capital structure with different kinds of bonds (e.g. senior and junior), warrants, corporate taxes, ESOP, and more. Volume 1: Foundations of CCA and Equity ValuationVolume 1 presents the seminal papers of Black and Scholes (1973) and Merton (1973, 1974). This volume also includes papers that specifically price equity as a call option on the corporation. It introduces warrants, convertible bonds and taxation as contingent claims on the corporation. It highlights the strong relationship between the CCA and the Modigliani-Miller (M&M) Theorems, and the relation to the Capital Assets Pricing Model (CAPM). Volume 2: CCA Approach to Corporate Debt ValuationVolume 2 concentrates on corporate bond valuation by introducing various types of bonds with different covenants as well as introducing various conditions that trigger default. While empirical evidence indicates that the simple Merton's model underestimates the credit spreads, additional risk factors like jumps can be used to resolve it. Volume 3: Issues in Corporate Finance with CCA ApproachVolume 3 includes papers that look at issues in corporate finance that can be explained with the CCA approach. These issues include the effect of dividend policy on the valuation of debt and equity, the pricing of employee stock options and many other issues of corporate governance. Volume 4: CCA Approach to Banking and Financial IntermediationVolume 4 focuses on the application of the contingent claim approach to banks and other financial intermediaries. Regulation of the banking industry led to the creation of new financial securities (e.g., CoCos) and new types of stakeholders (e.g., deposit insurers).
This paper reviews empirical and theoretical work on the links between banks and their governments (the bank-sovereign nexus). How significant is this nexus? What do we know about it? To what extent is it a source of concern? What is the role of policy intervention? The paper concludes with a review of recent policy proposals.
This paper provides a comprehensive survey of pertinent issues on sovereign debt restructurings, based on a newly constructed database. This is the first complete dataset of sovereign restructuring cases, covering the six decades from 1950–2010; it includes 186 debt exchanges with foreign banks and bondholders, and 447 bilateral debt agreements with the Paris Club. We present new stylized facts on the outcome and process of debt restructurings, including on the size of haircuts, creditor participation, and legal aspects. In addition, the paper summarizes the relevant empirical literature, analyzes recent restructuring episodes, and discusses ongoing debates on crisis resolution mechanisms, credit default swaps, and the role of collective action clauses.
This paper provides an overview of sovereign debt portfolio risks and discusses various liability management operations (LMOs) and instruments used by public debt managers to mitigate these risks. Debt management strategies analyzed in the context of helping reach debt portfolio targets and attain desired portfolio structures. Also, the paper outlines how LMOs could be integrated into a debt management strategy and serve as policy tools to reduce potential debt portfolio vulnerabilities. Further, the paper presents operational issues faced by debt managers, including the need to develop a risk management framework, interactions of debt management with fiscal policy, monetary policy, and financial stability, as well as efficient government bond markets.
In this issue, a team of economists look at approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or permanent phenomenon. Era Dabla-Norris and Gabriela Inchauste examine what drives the growth of firms, with a focus on informality and regulations. Evan Tanner and Issouf Samake use a vector autoregression approach to examine the probabilistic sustainability of public debt in Brazil. Mexico, and Turkey. And Rachel Glennerster and Yongseok Shin ask whether transparency pays?that is, does the frequency and accuracy of macroeconomic information released to the public lead to lower borrowing costs in sovereign debt markets?
Addressing the global financial crisis has required fiscal intervention on a substantial scale by governments around the world. The consequent buildup of public debt, in particular its sustainability, has moved to center stage in the policy debate. If the Asia and Pacific region is to continue to serve as an engine for global growth, its public debt must be sustainable. Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia addresses this issue for Asia and the Pacific as a whole as well as for three of the most dynamic economies in the region: the People’s Republic of China, India, and Viet Nam. The book begins with a discussion of the reasons for increased attention to debt-related issues. It also introduces fiscal indicators for the Asian Development. Bank’s developing member countries and economies. The sustainability of their debt is assessed through extant approaches and with the most up-to-date data sources. The book also surveys the existing literature on debt sustainability, outlining the main issues related to it, and discusses the key implications for the application of debt sustainability analysis in developing Asia. Also highlighted is the importance of conducting individual country studies in view of wide variations in definitions of public expenditure, revenues, contingent liabilities, government structures (e.g., federal), and the like, as well as the impact of debt on interest rates. The book further provides in-depth debt sustainability analyses for the People’s Republic of China, India, and Viet Nam. Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia offers a comprehensive analytical and empirical update on the sustainability of public debt in the region. It breaks new ground in examining characteristics that are crucial to understanding sustainability and offers richer policy analysis that should prove useful for policymakers, researchers, and graduate students.
This paper explores how banking sector developments and characteristics influence the propagation of risks from the banking sector to sovereign debt, including how they affect the extent of fiscal costs of banking crises when those occur. It then proposes practices and policies for the fiscal authorities to help manage the risks and enhance crisis preparedness.
The Global Financial Stability Report examines current risks facing the global financial system and policy actions that may mitigate these. It analyzes the key challenges facing financial and nonfinancial firms as they continue to repair their balance sheets. Chapter 2 takes a closer look at whether sovereign credit default swaps markets are good indicators of sovereign credit risk. Chapter 3 examines unconventional monetary policy in some depth, including the policies pursued by the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
