Leading Economic Indicators

Leading Economic Indicators

Author: Kajal Lahiri

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 1991

Total Pages: 488

ISBN-13: 9780521438582

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Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalise existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators.


Business Cycles

Business Cycles

Author: Victor Zarnowitz

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2007-11-01

Total Pages: 613

ISBN-13: 0226978923

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This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.


Consumer Price Index Manual

Consumer Price Index Manual

Author: International Labour Office

Publisher: International Labour Organization

Published: 2004-08-25

Total Pages: 578

ISBN-13: 9789221136996

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The consumer price index (CPI) measures the rate at which prices of consumer goods and services change over time. It is used as a key indicator of economic performance, as well as in the setting of monetary and socio-economic policy such as indexation of wages and social security benefits, purchasing power parities and inflation measures. This manual contains methodological guidelines for statistical offices and other agencies responsible for constructing and calculating CPIs, and also examines underlying economic and statistical concepts involved. Topics covered include: expenditure weights, sampling, price collection, quality adjustment, sampling, price indices calculations, errors and bias, organisation and management, dissemination, index number theory, durables and user costs.


Business Tendency Surveys A Handbook

Business Tendency Surveys A Handbook

Author: OECD

Publisher: OECD Publishing

Published: 2003-03-20

Total Pages: 130

ISBN-13: 9264177442

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This handbook is a practical manual on the design and implementation of business tendency surveys, which ask company managers about the current situation of their business and about their plans and expectations for the future.


Open issues in composite indicators. A starting point and a reference on some state-of-the-art issues

Open issues in composite indicators. A starting point and a reference on some state-of-the-art issues

Author: Adrian Otoiu

Publisher: Roma TrE-Press

Published: 2021-03-02

Total Pages: 125

ISBN-13:

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Il libro descrive e affronta alcune questioni tutt’ora aperte nel campo della costruzione di indicatori compositi. Si propone come complemento a riferimenti consolidati quali OECD handbook of composite indicators, e approfondisce temi che saranno certo oggetto di ampio sviluppo nel prossimo futuro, soprattutto nell’ambito degli indicatori di benessere e progresso umano. La prima parte del libro illustra lo stato dell’arte delle metodologie per la costruzione di indicatori compositi mentre la seconda parte affronta specifici nodi critici piu’ recenti. Il libro fornisce strumenti utili sia a ricercatori con una conoscenza limitata degli indicatori compositi, che a studiosi interessati ad un aggiornamento su temi più avanzati.


The Economic Performance Index (EPI)

The Economic Performance Index (EPI)

Author: Mr.Vadim Khramov

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-10-23

Total Pages: 60

ISBN-13: 1484381297

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Existing economic indicators and indexes assess economic activity but no single indicator measures the general macro-economic performance of a nation, state, or region in a methodologically simple and intuitive way. This paper proposes a simple, yet informative metric called the Economic Performance Index (EPI). The EPI represents a step toward clarity, by combining data on inflation, unemployment, government deficit, and GDP growth into a single indicator. In contrast to other indexes, the EPI does not use complicated mathematical procedures but was designed for simplicity, making it easier for professionals and laypeople alike to understand and apply to the economy. To maximize ease of understanding, we adopt a descriptive grading system. In addition to a Raw EPI that gives equal weights to its components, we construct a Weighted EPI and show that both indexes perform similarly for U.S. data. To demonstrate the validity of the EPI, we conduct a review of U.S. history from 1790 to 2012. We show that the EPI reflects the major events in U.S. history, including wars, periods of economic prosperity and booms, along with economic depressions, recessions, and even panics. Furthermore, the EPI not only captures official recessions over the past century but also allows for measuring and comparing their relative severity. Even though the EPI is simple by its construction, we show that its dynamics are similar to those of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI).


Business Cycle Indicators

Business Cycle Indicators

Author: Karl Heinrich Oppenländer

Publisher:

Published: 1997

Total Pages: 314

ISBN-13: 9781859724361

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The pressure to produce explanations and forecasts and the economic dichotomies which insist on appearing, lead to a desire to deal with the description, analysis and forecast of the phenomenon of business cycles using economic indicators. This text provides an introduction to business cycles and their theoretical and historical basis. It also includes work on early indicator research and provides examples of business cycle indicators.


Business Cycles in BRICS

Business Cycles in BRICS

Author: Sergey Smirnov

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2018-08-15

Total Pages: 505

ISBN-13: 331990017X

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This volume focuses on the analysis and measurement of business cycles in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). Divided into five parts, it begins with an overview of the main concepts and problems involved in monitoring and forecasting business cycles. Then it highlights the role of BRICS in the global economy and explores the interrelatedness of business cycles within BRICS. In turn, part two provides studies on the historical development of business cycles in the individual BRICS countries and describes the driving forces behind those cycles. Parts three and four present national business tendency surveys and composite cyclical indices for real-time monitoring and forecasting of various BRICS economies, while the final part discusses how the lessons learned in the BRICS countries can be used for the analysis of business cycles and their socio-political consequences in other emerging countries.