This study reveals the extent of persistent downward trends in commodity prices on least developed countries (LDCs), small vulnerable states (SVSs) and heavily indebted countries (HIPCs) and proposes a Joint Diversification Scheme exclusively for export diversification schemes in the commoditydependent poor countries. The report also proposes and outlines the establishment of a Joint Diversification Fund, in addition to regular aid flows as a longterm solution.
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
The April 2012 issue of the World Economic Outlook assesses the prospects for the global economy, which has gradually strengthened after a major setback during 2011. The threat of a sharp global slowdown eased with improved activity in the United States and better policies in the euro area. Weak recovery will likely resume in the major advanced economies, and activity will remain relatively solid in most emerging and developing economies. However, recent improvements are very fragile. Policymakers must calibrate policies to support growth in the near term and must implement fundamental changes to achieve healthy growth in the medium term. Chapter 3 examines how policies directed at real estate markets can accelerate the improvement of household balance sheets and thus support otherwise anemic consumption. Chapter 4 examines how swings in commodity prices affect commodity-exporting economies, many of which have experienced a decade of good growth. With commodity prices unlikely to continue growing at the recent elevated pace, however, these economies may have to adapt their fiscal and other policies to lower potential output growth in the future.
Presenting a complete analysis of the issues surrounding commodity prices and development, this study provides a number of recommendations and policy prescriptions to address the unique set of development issues faced by countries reliant on only a handful of commodities for export earnings.
Commodity-linked finance has expanded rapidly in the 1980s, but it has mainly been confined to entities in industrial countries. Creditworthiness questions, reinforced by debt overhang, handicap the developing countries in their access to this type of financing. To achieve better risk management in the commodity-dependent developing countries, the authors argue that commodity-linked financial measures have important advantages in the external financing of developing countries as compared to the traditional alternatives of foreign-currency-denominated, general obligation borrowing or direct foreign investment. The authors argue that commodity-linked financing allows developing countries that are overexposed to particular risks, relative to those in the world economy, to shift these risks to world capital markets on an ex ante basis. The study concludes by offering a number of strategic solutions involving the World Bank as an integral participant in both monitoring debt reduction and enacting a technical advice program to assist developing countries manage their financial risk.
Over the past decades, inequality has risen not just in advanced economies but also in many emerging market and developing economies, becoming one of the key global policy challenges. And throughout the 20th century, Latin America was associated with some of the world’s highest levels of inequality. Yet something interesting happened in the first decade and a half of the 21st century. Latin America was the only region in the World to have experienced significant declines in inequality in that period. Poverty also fell in Latin America, although this was replicated in other regions, and Latin America started from a relatively low base. Starting around 2014, however, and even before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, poverty and inequality gains had already slowed in Latin America and, in some cases, gone into reverse. And the COVID-19 shock, which is still playing out, is likely to dramatically worsen short-term poverty and inequality dynamics. Against this background, this departmental paper investigates the link between commodity prices, and poverty and inequality developments in Latin America.
Debunking the current model of international aid promoted by both Hollywood celebrities and policy makers, Moyo offers a bold new road map for financing development of the world's poorest countries.
A study which discusses the structural problems in Zambia and the policies of adjustment that have been tried. It also analyses the impact of various strategies with regard to external resource transfers. The results show that the scope for growth is highly dependent on the tightness of the external resource constraint, and that debt service tends to dominate the policy-making.
The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.
