This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the degree of co-movement among the nominal price returns of 11 major energy, agricultural, and food commodities using monthly data between 1970 and 2013. The authors study the extent and the time evolution of unconditional and conditional correlations using a uniform-spacings testing approach, a multivariate dynamic conditional correlation model and a rolling regression procedure.
This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the degree of co-movement among the nominal price returns of 11 major energy, agricultural and food commodities based on monthly data between 1970 and 2013. A uniform-spacings testing approach, a multivariate dynamic conditional correlation model and a rolling regression procedure are used to study the extent and the time-evolution of unconditional and conditional correlations. The results indicate that (i) the price returns of energy and agricultural commodities are highly correlated; (ii) the overall level of co-movement among commodities increased in recent years, especially between energy and agricultural commodities and in particular in the cases of maize and soybean oil, which are important inputs in the production of biofuels; and (iii) particularly after 2007, stock market volatility is positively associated with the co-movement of price returns across markets.
Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.
This paper was written to help bolster the case and present visual evidence demonstrating why it is important to seriously consider spatial soil fertility variability in Ghana and to promote area-specific fertilizer recommendations. Using geostatistical analysis of soil samples collected from farmer plots in three districts (Tamale Municipality, Savelugu-Nanton, and West Mamprusi in northern Ghana), the paper analyzes spatial variations in soil fertility. The results clearly show that there are variations in soil pH, organic matter content, and available phosphorous even at the community level, supporting the need for Ghana to seriously consider location-specific fertilizer recommendations.
This paper investigates linkages between womens empowerment in agriculture and the nutritional status of women and children using 2012 baseline data from the Feed the Future population-based survey in Ghana. The sample consists of 3,344 children and 3,640 women and is statistically representative of the northernmost regions of Ghana where the Feed the Future programs are operating.
From 2006 to mid-2008 the international prices of agricultural commodities increased considerably, by a factor larger than two. This upward trend in agricultural prices captured the world's attention as a new food crisis was emerging. Several explanations for these movements in prices, ranging from demand-driven forces to supply shocks, have been provided by analysts, researchers, and development institutions. This paper is an attempt to empirically validate these explanations using time series econometrics and data at monthly frequency. We focus on the international price of corn, wheat, rice, and soybeans. First, we identify variables associated with the factors mentioned as causing the increase in these agricultural commodities prices. Second, we use time series analysis to try to quantitatively validate those explanations. The empirical work presented here includes first difference models and rolling Granger causality tests. Overall, our empirical analysis mainly provides evidence that financial activity in futures markets and proxies for speculation can help explain the observed change in food prices; any other explanation is not well supported by our time series analysis.
This paper tests for evidence of contagion between the financial markets of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea, and the Philippines. Cross-country correlations among currencies and sovereign spreads are found to increase significantly during the crisis period, whereas the equity market correlations offer mixed evidence. A set of dummy variables using daily news is constructed to capture the impact of own-country and cross-border news on the markets. After controlling for own-country news and other fundamentals, the paper shows evidence of cross-border contagion in the currency and equity markets.
This timely volume addresses three important recent trends in the internationalization of United States equity markets: extensive market integration through foreign investment and links among stock prices around the world; increasing securitization as countries such as Japan come to rely more than ever before on markets in equities and bonds at the expense of banks; and the opening of national financial systems of newly industrializing countries to international financial flows and institutions, as governments remove capital controls and other barriers. Eight essays examine such issues as the current extent of international market integration, gains to U.S. investors through international diversification, home-country bias in investing, the role of time and location around the world in stock trading, and the behavior of country funds. Other, long-standing questions about equity markets are also addressed, including market efficiency and the accuracy of models of expected returns, with a particular focus on variances, covariances, and the price of risk according to the Capital Asset Pricing Model.
