One issue could lead to a disastrous war between the United States and China: Taiwan. A growing number of Taiwanese want independence for their island and regard mainland China as an alien nation. Mainland Chinese consider Taiwan a province that was stolen from China more than a century ago, and their patience about getting it back is wearing thin. Washington officially endorses a "one China" policy but also sells arms to Taiwan and maintains an implicit pledge to defend it from attack. That vague, muddled policy invites miscalculation by Taiwan or China or both. The three parties are on a collision course, and unless something dramatic changes, an armed conflict is virtually inevitable within a decade. Although there is still time to avert a calamity, time is running out. In this book, Carpenter tells the reader what the U.S. must do quickly to avoid being dragged into war.
A war between China and the US would be catastrophic, deadly, and destructive. Unfortunately, it is no longer unthinkable. The relationship between the US and China, the world’s two superpowers, is peculiarly volatile. It rests on a seismic fault—of cultural misunderstanding, historical grievance, and ideological incompatibility. No other nations are so quick to offend and be offended. Their militaries play a dangerous game of chicken, corporations steal intellectual property, intelligence satellites peer, and AI technicians plot. The capacity for either country to cross a fatal line grows daily. Kevin Rudd, a former Australian prime minister who has studied, lived in, and worked with China for more than forty years, is one of the very few people who can offer real insight into the mindsets of the leadership whose judgment will determine if a war will be fought. The Avoidable War demystifies the actions of both sides, explaining and translating them for the benefit of the other. Geopolitical disaster is still avoidable, but only if these two giants can find a way to coexist without betraying their core interests through what Rudd calls “managed strategic competition.” Should they fail, down that path lies the possibility of a war that could rewrite the future of both countries, and the world.
The Taiping Rebellion was one of the costliest civil wars in human history. Many millions of people lost their lives. Yet while the Rebellion has been intensely studied by scholars in China and elsewhere, we still know little of how individuals coped with these cataclysmic events. Drawing upon a rich array of primary sources, What Remains explores the issues that preoccupied Chinese and Western survivors. Individuals, families, and communities grappled with fundamental questions of loyalty and loss as they struggled to rebuild shattered cities, bury the dead, and make sense of the horrors that they had witnessed. Driven by compelling accounts of raw emotion and deep injury, What Remains opens a window to a world described by survivors themselves. This book transforms our understanding of China's 19th century and recontextualizes suffering and loss in China during the 20th century.
From two former military officers and award-winning authors, a chillingly authentic geopolitical thriller that imagines a naval clash between the US and China in the South China Sea in 2034 - and the path from there to a nightmarish global conflagration. On March 12, 2034, US Navy Commodore Sarah Hunt is on the bridge of her flagship, the guided missile destroyer USS John Paul Jones, conducting a routine freedom of navigation patrol in the South China Sea when her ship detects an unflagged trawler in clear distress, smoke billowing from its bridge. On that same day, US Marine aviator Major Chris "Wedge" Mitchell is flying an F35E Lightning over the Strait of Hormuz, testing a new stealth technology as he flirts with Iranian airspace. By the end of that day, Wedge will be an Iranian prisoner, and Sarah Hunt's destroyer will lie at the bottom of the sea, sunk by the Chinese Navy. Iran and China have clearly coordinated their moves, which involve the use of powerful new forms of cyber weaponry that render US ships and planes defenseless. In a single day, America's faith in its military's strategic preeminence is in tatters. A new, terrifying era is at hand. So begins a disturbingly plausible work of speculative fiction, coauthored by an award-winning novelist and decorated Marine veteran and the former commander of NATO, a legendary admiral who has spent much of his career strategically outmaneuvering America's most tenacious adversaries. Written with a powerful blend of geopolitical sophitication and human empathy, 2034 takes us inside the minds of a global cast of characters - Americans, Chinese, Iranians, Russians, Indians - as a series of arrogant miscalculations on all sides leads the world into an intensifying international storm. In the end, China and the United States will have paid a staggering cost, one that forever alters the global balance of power. Everything in 2034 is an imaginative extrapolation from present-day facts on the ground combined with the authors' years of working at the highest and most classified levels of national security. Sometimes it takes a brilliant work of fiction to illuminate the most dire of warnings: 2034 is all too close at hand, and this cautionary tale presents the readers a dark yet possible future that we must do all we can to avoid. --
For more than a century, no US adversary or coalition of adversaries - not Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, or the Soviet Union - has ever reached sixty percent of US GDP. China is the sole exception, and it is fast emerging into a global superpower that could rival, if not eclipse, the United States. What does China want, does it have a grand strategy to achieve it, and what should the United States do about it? In The Long Game, Rush Doshi draws from a rich base of Chinese primary sources, including decades worth of party documents, leaked materials, memoirs by party leaders, and a careful analysis of China's conduct to provide a history of China's grand strategy since the end of the Cold War. Taking readers behind the Party's closed doors, he uncovers Beijing's long, methodical game to displace America from its hegemonic position in both the East Asia regional and global orders through three sequential "strategies of displacement." Beginning in the 1980s, China focused for two decades on "hiding capabilities and biding time." After the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, it became more assertive regionally, following a policy of "actively accomplishing something." Finally, in the aftermath populist elections of 2016, China shifted to an even more aggressive strategy for undermining US hegemony, adopting the phrase "great changes unseen in century." After charting how China's long game has evolved, Doshi offers a comprehensive yet asymmetric plan for an effective US response. Ironically, his proposed approach takes a page from Beijing's own strategic playbook to undermine China's ambitions and strengthen American order without competing dollar-for-dollar, ship-for-ship, or loan-for-loan.
This compact, insightful book offers an up-to-the-minute guide to understanding the evolution of maritime territorial disputes in East Asia, exploring their legal, political-security and economic dimensions against the backdrop of a brewing Sino-American rivalry for hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region. It traces the decades-long evolution of Sino-American relations in Asia, and how this pivotal relationship has been central to prosperity and stability in one of the most dynamics regions of the world. It also looks at how middle powers – from Japan and Australia to India and South Korea – have joined the fray, trying to shape the trajectory of the territorial disputes in the Western Pacific, which can, in turn, alter the future of Asia – and ignite an international war that could re-configure the global order. The book examines how the maritime disputes have become a litmus test of China’s rise, whether it has and will be peaceful or not, and how smaller powers such as Vietnam and the Philippines have been resisting Beijing’s territorial ambitions. Drawing on extensive discussions and interviews with experts and policy-makers across the Asia-Pacific region, the book highlights the growing geopolitical significance of the East and South China Sea disputes to the future of Asia – providing insights into how the so-called Pacific century will shape up.
War is coming again to the Pacific. It is coming for the same reasons is came in 1941. Then, Japan was a close friend and trading partner to the United States. Japan was growing rapidly into the strongest economic power in that part of the world. However, they had three major domestic problems: a lack of natural resources that others had, a huge population growing beyond their ability to manage, and the power of the United States to dictate what they did. To resolve first two, they had to limit the third. China is now in the same position. President Obama’s apologetic approach to international relations allowed China to limit American power by asking for and receiving nearly any negotiation terms they desired, pushing America into deep debtor status with China holding the IOU’s. Under President Trump, the tide has dramatically turned. In 1941, to limit the power of the United States in the Pacific, the Japanese sent a fleet to Pearl Harbor to cripple the US Pacific Fleet. They failed. China learned from this major mistake, or so they believe. China is now implementing a plan for doing something similar with the goal of achieving the same end with the nuclear threat of North Korea aimed at Hawaii. The “mistaken” missile alert, given how the alert is triggered and the immediate demands of certain politicians there, make it obvious that “this was no drill.” Rather, it is a message to America. They believe they can hand President Trump, and the allies, a fait accompli; and it is obvious for those willing to open their eyes to the facts. China is telling America to obey or face another, nuclear Pearl Harbor. Unbelievable? Only if one decides to ignore the signs that are there for all to see. In the 1930’s America ignored the signs in Europe and the western Pacific and the China Seas right up to December 7th, 1941. History is repeating itself in the same locations and for the same reasons; resources, empire, and global control. In the Intelligence Community, there is a process known as OSINT or open source intelligence where an analyst establishes a hypothesis, then begins to develop indications of whether the hypothesis is valid or not. Using open sources, the analyst evaluates the information, the sources, the statements by governments and the actions by those same governments to develop a picture or scenario. This work is such a scenario of the South China Sea, and it is a scary one as it points directly to the events of 70 years ago to the actions of today with perfect accuracy.
China?s ambition is to rise peacefully. Avoiding fierce conflicts with its Asian neighbors is essential to this goal. Jonathan Holslag makes a brilliant case for the geopolitical dilemma facing the rising China, and his argument that China will likely enter into major conflict with Asia is compelling and thoughtful. Both Chinese experts and decision-makers will find this book illuminating reading. Asia is set for another great power war. As China?s influence spreads beyond its territorial borders and its global aspirations gain momentum, so tensions with its neighbors are reaching breaking point. In this clear-sighted book, Jonathan Holslag debunks the myth of China?s peaceful rise, arguing instead that China?s policy of shrewd intransigence towards other Asian countries will inevitably result in serious conflict. China?s ambitions are not malicious. But what China wants ? namely to maximize its security and prosperity ? will lead to a huge power imbalance, where China towers above her neighbors, impels them into unequal partnerships, and is increasingly able to seize disputed territory. At present, China?s focused and uncompromising pursuit of its own interests is bearing fruit. Many of China?s neighbors are still too weak to counter Beijing?s influence, and China has ably exploited divisions between them to divide and rule. But several regional powers are now joining forces to stop China. With the PRC unlikely to back down and nationalism riding high, China?s coming war with Asia is already in the making.
This balanced and deeply informed book provides a comprehensive account of China’s Asia policy since the Cold War. Lowell Dittmer traces the PRC’s policy toward its Asian neighbors in the context of the country’s move from a developing nation to a great power, capable of playing a role in world politics commensurate with its remarkable economic rise. The author considers China’s bilateral relations with Russia, Central Asia, South and Southeast Asia, and Australia. Each of these relationships is also viewed in terms of China’s rivalry with the United States, which has viewed China’s rise with admiration tinged with a certain foreboding. Thus, Dittmer employs a triangular analysis to understand Beijing’s attempt to expand in Asia while at the same time deterring Washington’s interference. Reframing the international relations of Asia in a thought-provoking and informed manner, this important book presents a panoramic view of the dynamics at work on all sides of China.
China’s rise has upset the global balance of power, and the first place to feel the strain is Beijing’s back yard: the South China Sea. For decades tensions have smoldered in the region, but today the threat of a direct confrontation among superpowers grows ever more likely. This important book is the first to make clear sense of the South Sea disputes. Bill Hayton, a journalist with extensive experience in the region, examines the high stakes involved for rival nations that include Vietnam, India, Taiwan, the Philippines, and China, as well as the United States, Russia, and others. Hayton also lays out the daunting obstacles that stand in the way of peaceful resolution. Through lively stories of individuals who have shaped current conflicts—businessmen, scientists, shippers, archaeologists, soldiers, diplomats, and more—Hayton makes understandable the complex history and contemporary reality of the South China Sea. He underscores its crucial importance as the passageway for half the world’s merchant shipping and one-third of its oil and gas. Whoever controls these waters controls the access between Europe, the Middle East, South Asia, and the Pacific. The author critiques various claims and positions (that China has historic claim to the Sea, for example), overturns conventional wisdoms (such as America’s overblown fears of China’s nationalism and military resurgence), and outlines what the future may hold for this clamorous region of international rivalry.
