China Debates the Future Security Environment

China Debates the Future Security Environment

Author: Michael Pillsbury

Publisher: National Defense University (NDU)

Published: 2000

Total Pages: 436

ISBN-13:

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This study offers over 600 selected quotations from the writings of over 200 Chinese authors published from 1994 to 1999. Analysis and interpretation are kept to a minimum so that the Chinese may speak for themselves. Many Chinese scholars assisted with this study by providing hard-to-get books and articles unfamiliar to most Westerners. Half the authors were interviewed in China. They explained some of the viewpoints in recent debates about the future security environment. Debates in China are generally concealed, and frequently authors pretend they do not exist. However muted they may be, China's debates about the future nevertheless exist and merit attention if we are to understand the premises of China's national strategy and set a baseline from which to measure any future change in these premises.


China Debates the Future Security Environment

China Debates the Future Security Environment

Author: Michael Pillsbury

Publisher:

Published: 2012-07-18

Total Pages: 428

ISBN-13: 9781478268956

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The Office of Net Assessment, Department of Defense, is attempted to understand the long-term consequences of the rise of China as a major world power. As part of that effort, it seeks to understand the views of the most important Chinese authors who have analyzed the future security environment.


Chinese Views of Future Warfare

Chinese Views of Future Warfare

Author: Michael Pillsbury

Publisher: DIANE Publishing

Published: 1997-12

Total Pages: 470

ISBN-13: 9780788146688

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An introduction to the works of authoritative and innovative Chinese authors whose writings focus on the future of the Chinese military. These carefully selected, representative essays make Chinese military thinking more accessible to western readers. It reveals, for example, China's keen interest in the Revolution in military affairs. This volume is an important starting point for understanding China's future military modernization. "Must reading for every executive of every Western firm doing business in China." "Readers will be impressed by China's ambitions in space, information warfare, stealth, and robots, in future warfare." Photos.


The Hundred-Year Marathon

The Hundred-Year Marathon

Author: Michael Pillsbury

Publisher: Henry Holt and Company

Published: 2015-02-03

Total Pages: 419

ISBN-13: 162779011X

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One of the U.S. government's leading China experts reveals the hidden strategy fueling that country's rise – and how Americans have been seduced into helping China overtake us as the world's leading superpower. For more than forty years, the United States has played an indispensable role helping the Chinese government build a booming economy, develop its scientific and military capabilities, and take its place on the world stage, in the belief that China's rise will bring us cooperation, diplomacy, and free trade. But what if the "China Dream" is to replace us, just as America replaced the British Empire, without firing a shot? Based on interviews with Chinese defectors and newly declassified, previously undisclosed national security documents, The Hundred-Year Marathon reveals China's secret strategy to supplant the United States as the world's dominant power, and to do so by 2049, the one-hundredth anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic. Michael Pillsbury, a fluent Mandarin speaker who has served in senior national security positions in the U.S. government since the days of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger, draws on his decades of contact with the "hawks" in China's military and intelligence agencies and translates their documents, speeches, and books to show how the teachings of traditional Chinese statecraft underpin their actions. He offers an inside look at how the Chinese really view America and its leaders – as barbarians who will be the architects of their own demise. Pillsbury also explains how the U.S. government has helped – sometimes unwittingly and sometimes deliberately – to make this "China Dream" come true, and he calls for the United States to implement a new, more competitive strategy toward China as it really is, and not as we might wish it to be. The Hundred-Year Marathon is a wake-up call as we face the greatest national security challenge of the twenty-first century.


Interpreting China's Grand Strategy

Interpreting China's Grand Strategy

Author: Michael D. Swaine

Publisher: Rand Corporation

Published: 2000-03-22

Total Pages: 305

ISBN-13: 0833048309

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China's continuing rapid economic growth and expanding involvement in global affairs pose major implications for the power structure of the international system. To more accurately and fully assess the significance of China's emergence for the United States and the global community, it is necessary to gain a more complete understanding of Chinese security thought and behavior. This study addresses such questions as: What are China's most fundamental national security objectives? How has the Chinese state employed force and diplomacy in the pursuit of these objectives over the centuries? What security strategy does China pursue today and how will it evolve in the future? The study asserts that Chinese history, the behavior of earlier rising powers, and the basic structure and logic of international power relations all suggest that, although a strong China will likely become more assertive globally, this possibility is unlikely to emerge before 2015-2020 at the earliest. To handle this situation, the study argues that the United States should adopt a policy of realistic engagement with China that combines efforts to pursue cooperation whenever possible; to prevent, if necessary, the acquisition by China of capabilities that would threaten America's core national security interests; and to remain prepared to cope with the consequences of a more assertive China.


China Debates the Future Security Environment

China Debates the Future Security Environment

Author:

Publisher:

Published: 2000

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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This study's main finding is that for these Chinese authors, the future security environment is remarkably clear, even if some aspects are still subject to debate. Surprisingly, this clear picture is consistent with what Chairman Mao and Premier Zhou Enlai told President Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger 25 years ago: namely, a multipolar world was emerging and that four nations threatened China-Russia, India, Japan, and America. Although there is some debate among them, Chinese authors consistently express suspicions about other foreign powers, especially the United States, Japan, and India. As Stanford Professor of Political Science Michel Oksenberg states, China's leaders are naturally suspicious of foreign powers. They believe that foreign leaders tend to be reluctant to welcome China's rise in world affairs and would prefer to delay or obstruct its progress. They fear that many in the outside world would prefer to divide China if given the opportunity. China's leaders retain in their minds a strategic map of the points on their periphery that make them vulnerable to foreign influence.


Global Trends 2040

Global Trends 2040

Author: National Intelligence Council

Publisher: Cosimo Reports

Published: 2021-03

Total Pages: 158

ISBN-13: 9781646794973

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"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.


China's Foreign Policy Debates

China's Foreign Policy Debates

Author: Liqun Zhu

Publisher:

Published: 2010

Total Pages: 84

ISBN-13:

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This Chaillot Paper analyses internal debates on China's foreign policy that have taken place over the past decade. It is framed around three core concepts and based on an analysis of articles, books and commentaries published by prominent Chinese scholars in the field of international relations. The three concepts, shi, identity and strategy, respectively refer to the general context wherein China's foreign policy is formulated and conducted, China's identity in international society, and China's national goals and values.


The Future Security Environment in the Middle East

The Future Security Environment in the Middle East

Author: Nora Bensahel

Publisher: Rand Corporation

Published: 2004-03-12

Total Pages: 369

ISBN-13: 083303619X

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This report identifies several important trends that are shaping regional security. It examines traditional security concerns, such as energy security and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, as well as newer challenges posed by political reform, economic reform, civil-military relations, leadership change, and the information revolution. The report concludes by identifying the implications of these trends for U.S. foreign policy.


China's Rise

China's Rise

Author: C. Fred Bergsten

Publisher: Peterson Institute

Published: 2009

Total Pages: 292

ISBN-13: 0881324345

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Helps the United States and the rest of the world better comprehend the facts and dynamics underpinning China's rise. This book analyzes the data on China's economy, foreign and domestic policy, and national security.