Sell it Now Or Later?
Sell it Now Or Later?

Author: Minhao Yan

Publisher:

Published: 2019

Total Pages: 47

ISBN-13:

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We study the decision-making process of the selling of feeder cattle. For a specific feeder cattle, we strive to answer the following question: whether to sell the cattle in spring or fall to maximize the profits of farmers? To this end, we first construct an empirical pricing model based on a series of related covariates including: market conditions, lot characteristics, quality characteristics, color and seasonality. Then, based on the empirical pricing model, we estimate both the profits of selling the cattle in spring, and in fall. Comparing the two expected profits, we can help guide the decision making of farmers. By applying our decision-making method to a real-world feeder cattle market dataset, we show that 55.33% of the cattle sold in fall can bring more profits if they could be sold in spring.

Evaluating the Relative Worth of Public Range Improvements to a Cow-calf Ranching Operation Through Computer Simulation
Evaluating the Relative Worth of Public Range Improvements to a Cow-calf Ranching Operation Through Computer Simulation

Author: John Augustus Tanaka

Publisher:

Published: 1982

Total Pages: 160

ISBN-13:

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A computerized ranch simulation model of an eastern Oregon cattle ranch was tested for its ability to evaluate the economics of public rangeland improvement practices. The model was used to estimate likely impacts of various public policy alternatives for rangeland improvement on the relative profitability of a 400 mother cow ranch operation under alternative cattle prices at constant costs. The simulation model described herein is a tool to assist in making decisions concerning the efficient use of available public resources (i.e., labor, capital) in agriculturally dependent areas. Statistical analysis of the results showed the model was sensitive to different range improvement prescriptions at different sizes. The model was insensitive to changes caused by random forage production values. Subjective interpretation of annual changes in net worth among alternatives over time provided information useful for decision-making. A scoping process was used to reduce the number of alternatives for intensive evaluation. At each step in the scoping process a more specific decision criterion was imposed and the least desirable alternative(s) eliminated. When the number of alternatives was reduced to a manageable level or when decision criteria were exhausted, the remaining alternatives were compared on a year-by-year basis in order to ascertain if there were any qualitative differences. From the private point-of-view, it could be inferred that public investments in range improvements would best be concentrated on projects with earlier returns. From the public decision-makers' point-of-view, this information would be only one of many decision variables to consider in the selection of an alternative.