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Author: Steven R. David
Publisher: JHU Press
Published: 2008-08-15
Total Pages: 219
ISBN-13: 080188988X
DOWNLOAD EBOOKIntroduction : a new kind of threat -- Saudi Arabia : oil fields ablaze -- Pakistan : loose nukes -- Mexico : a flood of refugees -- China : collapse of a great power -- Conclusions : the coming storm.
Author: Steven R. David
Publisher: Johns Hopkins University Press+ORM
Published: 2008-08-15
Total Pages: 324
ISBN-13: 0801895103
DOWNLOAD EBOOKA look at how civil upheaval in foreign nations is becoming a greater threat to the United States than international warfare, and what must be done. Civil war and other types of radical domestic upheaval are replacing international war as the preeminent threat to American security and economic well-being, according to Steven R. David. Catastrophic Consequences argues that civil conflicts are of even greater importance than deliberate efforts to harm the United States because the damage they inflict is unintended and therefore impossible to deter. David examines the prospects for and potential aftereffects of instability in four nations vital to U.S. national interests: Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, China, and Mexico. It is not a rising China that threatens America, but one that is falling apart. Likewise, the United States should not worry over a hostile Pakistani regime, but rather one that cannot keep the country together. Similarly, a conflict-torn Mexico or Saudi Arabia poses a far greater danger to America than does either of those states growing stronger. In assessing these threats, David contends that the United States’s only viable option is to view other-state civil upheaval similarly to natural disasters and to develop a coherent, effective emergency response mechanism, which does not exist today in any systemic, nationwide form. “David is not a doomsayer or an advocate or liberal interventionism. He does not argue that the United States can or should mediate in civil wars. Instead, he calls for a cold-hearted examination of countries suffering collapse, with disciplined attention to the potential damage to American interests . . . David’s book offers a promising new beginning for a difficult and pressing set of issues.” —Jeremi Suri, Political Science Quarterly
Author: Christian Koeberl
Publisher: Geological Society of America
Published: 2002
Total Pages: 764
ISBN-13: 9780813723563
DOWNLOAD EBOOKAuthor: B. John Garrick
Publisher: Academic Press
Published: 2008-10-27
Total Pages: 374
ISBN-13: 0080923453
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThe perception, assessment and management of risk are increasingly important core principles for determining the development of both policy and strategic responses to civil and environmental catastrophes. Whereas these principles were once confined to some areas of activity i.e. financial and insurance, they are now widely used in civil and environmental engineering. Comprehensive and readable, Civil and Environmental Risk: Mitigation and Control, provides readers with the mathematical tools and quantitative methods for determining the probability of a catastrophic event and mitigating and controlling the aftermath. With this book engineers develop the required skills for accurately assessing risk and formulating appropriate response strategies. The two part treatment starts with a clear and rigorous exposition of the quantitative risk assessment process, followed by self-contained chapters concerning applications. One of the first books to address both natural and human generated disasters, topics include events such as pandemic diseases, climate changes, major hurricanes, super earthquakes, mega tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, industrial accidents and terrorist attacks. Case studies appear at the end of the book allowing engineers to see how these principles are applied to scenarios such as a super hurricane or mega tsunamis, a reactor core melt down in a nuclear plant, a terrorist attack on the national electric grid, and an abrupt climate change brought about by a change in the ocean currents in the North Atlantic. Written by the current Chairman of the U.S. Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board, Environmental risk managers will find this reference a valuable and authoritative guide both in accurately calculating risk and its applications in their work. Mathematical tools for calculating and Controlling Catastrophic Risk Presents a systematic method for ranking the importance of societal threats Includes both Natural and Industrial Catastrophes Case studies cover such events as pandemic diseases, climate changes, major hurricanes, super earthquakes, mega tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, industrial accidents, and terrorist attacks
Author: Nick Bostrom
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Published: 2008-07-04
Total Pages: 576
ISBN-13: 0191547131
DOWNLOAD EBOOKA global catastrophic risk is one with the potential to wreak death and destruction on a global scale. In human history, wars and plagues have done so on more than one occasion, and misguided ideologies and totalitarian regimes have darkened an entire era or a region. Advances in technology are adding dangers of a new kind. It could happen again. In Global Catastrophic Risks 25 leading experts look at the gravest risks facing humanity in the 21st century, including asteroid impacts, gamma-ray bursts, Earth-based natural catastrophes, nuclear war, terrorism, global warming, biological weapons, totalitarianism, advanced nanotechnology, general artificial intelligence, and social collapse. The book also addresses over-arching issues - policy responses and methods for predicting and managing catastrophes. This is invaluable reading for anyone interested in the big issues of our time; for students focusing on science, society, technology, and public policy; and for academics, policy-makers, and professionals working in these acutely important fields.
Author: James William Martin
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing USA
Published: 2011-09-12
Total Pages: 312
ISBN-13: 0313393125
DOWNLOAD EBOOKIn this book, interrelationships between more than 40 recent catastrophic events are explored, discussing failures of structures and machines, information technology, regulatory agencies, security designs, and more. The world is full of wonderful products and services that occasionally disappoint and even harm us. Unexpected Consequences: Why The Things We Trust Fail explores the reasons these failures occur, examining them from technological, human, and organizational perspectives. Using more than 40 recent catastrophic events to illustrate its points, the book discusses structural and machine failure, but also the often-overlooked failure of people and of systems related to such things as information technology, healthcare, and security. As the book demonstrates, faulty technology played a surprisingly small part in many of the scrutinized disasters. Author James William Martin finds cognitive factors and organizational dynamics, including ethics, are major contributors to most unexpected and catastrophic failures causing loss of life and extensive property damage. With that fresh perspective in mind, Martin is able to suggest remedies that address service failure and just may help prevent future disasters from taking place.
Author: Nick Bostrom
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Published: 2011-09-29
Total Pages: 577
ISBN-13: 0199606501
DOWNLOAD EBOOKA Global Catastrophic Risk is one that has the potential to inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale. This book focuses on such risks arising from natural catastrophes (Earth-based or beyond), nuclear war, terrorism, biological weapons, totalitarianism, advanced nanotechnology, artificial intelligence and social collapse.
Author: Kevin D. Burton
Publisher: CRC Press
Published: 2012-10-25
Total Pages: 351
ISBN-13: 1466504641
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThe author’s previous work, Managing Emerging Risk: The Capstone of Preparedness considered the notion of risk and what constitutes risk assessment. It presented scenarios to introduce readers to areas of critical thinking around probability and possibility. Six months after the book’s publication, many of the scenarios came true, and other, more menacing risks emerged. Catastrophic Impact and Loss: The Capstone of Impact Assessment is the second stone to be laid in a path toward a more mindful practice of emergency management, focusing on the impacts caused by risk and offering a complete approach to measure and manage them. Providing a true understanding of what it is to be "in harm’s way," this essential book details the devastation and effects that both public and private enterprise must be prepared for in the event of a catastrophe. The book examines: Impact assessment as an essential piece of information and the fundamental flaws that hinder the process The development of the digital age and postmodernism and the five guiding principles of postmodern impact assessments How to establish an impact horizon and effect a clear scope statement that includes all in-scope and out-of-scope assets and locations Problems that occur when we fail to create impact assessments that align with internal organizational values, federal and state laws, or industry regulations—and how to use the guiding principles to address these problems Methods for developing solid analytical models for impact assessment—exacting logical, relevant, and clear language and taxonomies How to address overrides and deviations based on expert opinion, cultural needs, and the application of common sense Key challenges in postmodern business impact assessment and how we can best meet those challenges by understanding the concept of the uncanny valley Readers who master the principles in this book will better understand the link between the potential damage of an event and how information informs every decision to prepare for, respond to, mitigate, and recover.
Author: David Sepkoski
Publisher: Science.Culture
Published: 2020
Total Pages: 368
ISBN-13: 022634861X
DOWNLOAD EBOOKIntroduction: Why Extinction Matters -- The Meaning of Extinction: Catastrophe, Equilibrium, and Diversity -- Extinction in a Victorian Key -- Catastrophe and Modernity -- Extinction in the Shadow of the Bomb -- The Asteroid and the Dinosaur -- A Sixth Extinction? The Making of a Biodiversity Crisis -- Epilogue: Extinction in the Anthropocene.
Author: Paolo F. Ricci
Publisher: Springer Nature
Published: 2020-07-30
Total Pages: 202
ISBN-13: 3030480666
DOWNLOAD EBOOKPublic health policy prospectively and retrospectively addresses the consequences of events ranging from the commonplace to the catastrophic. Informing policymakers and stakeholders by enhancing their understanding of complex causation to justify remedial or precautionary actions is a critical science-policy task. In this book, the key aspects of catastrophes (regardless of their nature) and routine events are identified through a common framework for their analyses, and the analyses of the consequences associated with the potential occurrence of these events also are discussed. The book is not about disaster planning; instead, it is focused on analysis and causation in the context of informing – rather than formulating – public health policy. The author aggregates and fuses scientific information and knowledge in public health policy-science using alternative but complementary methods. The book first focuses on the analysis of catastrophes and commonplace events; the focus then shifts to causal models of multifactorial diseases, particularly at low doses or dose-rates, associated with these events. Topics explored among the chapters include: Policy and Legal Aspects of Precautionary Choices Catastrophes, Disasters, and Calamities: Concepts for Their Assessment Uncertainty: Probabilistic and Statistical Aspects Aggregating Judgments to Inform Precautionary Decision-making The aim of the book is to show that the analyses of events are fundamentally similar, regardless of whether the concern is a global catastrophe or commonplace. Analysis of Catastrophes and Their Public Health Consequences is a text that should engage students, instructors, and researchers in public health, science policy, and preparedness research, as well as serve as a useful resource for policy analysts, practitioners, and risk managers.
