The recent boom-bust episode in Emerging Europe was largely the product of surges and sudden stops in capital inflows. This paper empirically argues that the sectors into which capital flows determines their impact on GDP growth. Applying data from EU New Member States, it is found that capital flows into real estate have a greater impact on swings in GDP than other sectors, irrespective of a country's exchange rate or fiscal policy. Consequently, as new waves of capital inflows spread to emerging markets, policies may usefully focus on supporting capital inflows towards economic sectors that minimize large swings in GDP.
In the past decade, most of the EU New Member States experienced a severe credit-boom bust cycle. This paper argues that the credit boom-bust cycle was to a large extent the result of factors external to the region (“bad luck”). Rapid credit growth followed from a high liquidity in global markets and the particular attractiveness of “new Europe” for capital flows, while the end of the credit cycle was brought about by a global crisis. However, the fact that some countries managed to avoid most of the excesses, including asset price bubbles and foreign exchange lending, suggests that policies and policy failures (“bad policies”)—in particular overly expansionary macroeconomic settings and excessively optimistic views on prudential risks—also have played a critical role.
This title offers a timely restatement of the EU law on free movement of capital, focusing on the effect of EU law on international investment. Through analysis of the complex case law, it sets out the rights enjoyed by investors under EU law.
We examine economic convergence among euro area countries on multiple dimensions. While there was nominal convergence of inflation and interest rates, real convergence of per capita income levels has not occurred among the original euro area members since the advent of the common currency. Income convergence stagnated in the early years of the common currency and has reversed in the wake of the global economic crisis. New euro area members, in contrast, have seen real income convergence. Business cycles became more synchronized, but the amplitude of those cycles diverged. Financial cycles showed a similar pattern: sychronizing more over time, but with divergent amplitudes. Income convergence requires reforms boosting productivity growth in lagging countries, while cyclical and financial convergence can be enhanced by measures to improve national and euro area fiscal policies, together with steps to deepen the single market.
The European Union (EU) is a unique partnership in which member states have pooled sovereignty in certain policy areas and harmonized laws on a wide range of economic and political issues. The EU is the latest stage in a process of European integration begun after World War II, initially by six Western European countries, to promote peace, security, and economic development. The EU currently consists of 28 member states, including most of the formerly communist countries of Central and Eastern Europe. The EU is largely viewed as a cornerstone of European stability and prosperity. For much of the last decade, however, many EU countries have faced considerable economic difficulties. Despite an improved economic situation in the EU since 2017, economic pressures and societal changes have contributed to the rise of populist and antiestablishment political parties, at least some of which harbor anti-EU or "euroskeptic" sentiments. Such trends have complicated the EU's ability to deal with multiple internal and external challenges. Among the most prominent challenges are the pending departure of the United Kingdom (UK) from the EU ("Brexit"); democracy and rule-of-law concerns in Poland, Hungary, and other EU members; migration and related societal integration concerns; a resurgent Russia; and a heightened terrorism threat. Amid these difficult issues, some are questioning the future shape and character of the EU are being. Supporters of the EU worry that some aspects of EU integration could be stopped or reversed. Others contend that the multiple crises could produce some beneficial reforms that ultimately would transform the EU into a more effective, cohesive entity. Recently, considerable attention has focused on developing a "multispeed EU," in which some EU members could pursue greater integration in specified areas and others could opt out. Successive U.S. Administrations and many Members of Congress long have supported the European integration project, viewing it as crucial to European peace and security and as a way to foster strong U.S. allies and trading partners. Despite some tensions over the years, the United States and the EU share a dynamic political partnership on various foreign policy issues and an extensive trade and investment relationship. How the EU evolves in the years ahead may have strategic and economic repercussions for the United States. At the same time, some EU leaders are concerned about President Trump's apparent skepticism of the EU and his reported assessment of the bloc as an economic competitor. Those of this view also worry that elements of the Trump Administration's "America First" foreign policy-such as the U.S. decision to withdraw from the 2015 multilateral nuclear deal with Iran-pit the United States against the EU. A number of European officials and analysts question whether traditional U.S. support for close U.S.-EU relations may be shifting and whether the United States will remain a reliable international partner. Some observers suggest that managing relations with the United States under the Trump Administration has emerged as another, somewhat unexpected, challenge for the EU. At the same time, many in the EU hope to preserve close U.S.-EU ties and EU policymakers continue to seek to cooperate with the Trump Administration where possible on issues of common interest and concern. This report provides a brief history of the EU and the major challenges confronting the bloc. It also discusses the potential implications for the EU and for U.S.-EU relations.
This collection analyses the monetary and exchange rate strategies of the EU accession countries during the EMU (pre-) accession phase and also policy questions that will appear upon Euroarea entry. Written by specialists in the field, it is a must-read for all economists with an interest in the rapidly evolving economies of the future EU member states.
Assessing regulatory measures taken at the EU level that impact European bond markets, this book examines the desirability, utility, and feasibility of certain policy measures.
The boom and bust in capital flows to the New Member States of the European Union have received a considerable amount of attention; foreign direct investment and bank flows to the region and countries’ participation in regional supply chains have been well-documented. Relatively little has, however, been written about capital flows to the Western Balkans economies, which are often perceived to be ‘late arrivals’ to large capital flows. This paper aims to examine how capital flows to the Western Balkans compare with flows to the New Member States, in terms of levels as well as dynamics. We find that while financial integration took off somewhat later in the Western Balkans than in the New Member States, it has increased rapidly, despite still much lower capital account openness. Capital inflows as a share of GDP are comparable to those observed in the New Member States, (perhaps surprisingly) diverse in terms of source countries and broadly similar in composition, though with equity shares higher than they were in the New Member States at comparable levels of GDP per capita.
