Estimated Policy Rules for Capital Controls
Estimated Policy Rules for Capital Controls

Author: Gurnain Kaur Pasricha

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2020-06-05

Total Pages: 60

ISBN-13: 1513546104

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This paper borrows the tradition of estimating policy reaction functions from monetary policy literature to ask whether capital controls respond to macroprudential or mercantilist motivations. I explore this question using a novel, weekly dataset on capital control actions in 21 emerging economies from 2001 to 2015. I introduce a new proxy for mercantilist motivations: the weighted appreciation of an emerging-market currency against its top five trade competitors. This proxy Granger causes future net initiations of non-tariff barriers in most countries. Emerging markets systematically respond to both mercantilist and macroprudential motivations. Policymakers respond to trade competitiveness concerns by using both instruments—inflow tightening and outflow easing. They use only inflow tightening in response to macroprudential concerns. Policy is acyclical to foreign debt; however, high levels of this debt reduces countercyclicality to mercantilist concerns. Higher exchange rate pass-through to export prices, and having an inflation targeting regime with non-freely floating exchange rates, increase responsiveness to mercantilist concerns.

Macroeconomic Linkage
Macroeconomic Linkage

Author: Takatoshi Ito

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2009-02-15

Total Pages: 414

ISBN-13: 0226386996

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This volume explores East Asia's macroeconomic experience in the 1980s and the economic impact of East Asia's growth on the rest of the world. The authors explore the causes of capital flows, changes in trade balances, and exchange rate fluctuations in East Asia and their effects on other countries. These fourteen papers are organized around four themes: the overall determinants of growth and trading relations in the East Asian region; monetary policies in relation to capital controls and capital accounts; the impact of exchange rate behavior on industrial structure; and the potential for greater regional integration. The contributors examine interactions among exchange rate movements, trade balances, and capital flows; how government monetary policy affects capital flows; the effect of exchange rates on industrial structure, inventories, and prices; and the extent of regional integration in East Asia.

Capital Controls and the Cost of Debt
Capital Controls and the Cost of Debt

Author: Eugenia Andreasen

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-06-09

Total Pages: 26

ISBN-13: 1484303318

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Using a panel data set for international corporate bonds and capital account restrictions in advanced and emerging economies, we show that restrictions on capital inflows produce a substantial and economically meaningful increase in corporate bond spreads. A number of heterogeneities suggest that the effect of capital controls on inflows is particularly strong for more financially constrained firms, establishing a novel channel through which capital controls affect economic outcomes. By contrast, we do not find a robust significant effect of restrictions on outflows.

Capital Flow Deflection
Capital Flow Deflection

Author: Paolo Giordani

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2014-08-08

Total Pages: 47

ISBN-13: 1498317499

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This paper focuses on the coordination problem among borrowing countries imposing controls on capital infl ows. In a simple model of capital flows and controls, we show that inflow restrictions distort international capital flows to other countries and that, in turn, such capital flow deflection may lead to a policy response. We then test the theory using data on inflow restrictions and gross capital inflows for a large sample of developing countries between 1995 and 2009. Our estimation yields strong evidence that capital controls deflect capital flows to other borrowing countries with similar economic characteristics. Notwithstanding these strong cross-border spillover effects, we do not find evidence of a policy response.

Taming the Tide of Capital Flows
Taming the Tide of Capital Flows

Author: Atish R. Ghosh

Publisher: MIT Press

Published: 2018-01-12

Total Pages: 489

ISBN-13: 0262343762

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A comprehensive examination of policy measures intended to help emerging markets contend with large and volatile capital flows. While always episodic in nature, capital flows to emerging market economies have been especially volatile since the global financial crisis. After peaking at $680 billion in 2007, flows to emerging markets turned negative at the onset of crisis in 2008, then rebounded only to recede again during the U.S. sovereign debt downgrade in 2011. Since then, flows have continued to swing wildly, leaving emerging market policy makers wondering whether they can put in place policies during the inflow phase that will soften the blow when flows subsequently recede. This book offers the first comprehensive treatment of policy measures intended to help emerging markets contend with large and volatile capital flows. The authors, all IMF experts, explain that, in the spirit of liberalization and deregulation in the 1980s and 1990s, many emerging market governments eliminated capital inflow controls along with outflow controls. By 2012, however, capital inflow controls were again acknowledged as legitimate policy tools. Focusing on the macroeconomic and financial-stability risks associated with capital flows, the authors combine theoretical and empirical analysis to consider the interaction between monetary, exchange rate, macroprudential, and capital control policies to mitigate these risks. They examine the effectiveness of various policy tools, discuss the practical considerations and multilateral implications of their use, and provide concrete policy advice for dealing with capital inflows.

Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows
Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows

Author: Mr.R. G Gelos

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-12-20

Total Pages: 44

ISBN-13: 1513522906

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The volatility of capital flows to emerging markets continues to pose challenges to policymakers. In this paper, we propose a new framework to answer critical policy questions: What policies and policy frameworks are most effective in dampening sharp capital flow movements in response to global shocks? What are the near- versus medium-term trade-offs of different policies? We tackle these questions using a quantile regression framework to predict the entire future probability distribution of capital flows to emerging markets, based on current domestic structural characteristics, policies, and global financial conditions. This new approach allows policymakers to quantify capital flows risks and evaluate policy tools to mitigate them, thus building the foundation of a risk management framework for capital flows.

Capital Controls
Capital Controls

Author: Jonathan David Ostry

Publisher:

Published: 2015

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9781783479498

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The global financial crisis and its aftermath saw boom-bust cycles in cross-border capital flows of astounding magnitude. Issues of capital account liberalization and the imposition of capital controls are back in the headlines, and on researchers' agendas. This comprehensive and timely volume is the first collection of influential papers by leading scholars in the field that is representative of the various debates on this topic, and illustrative of how thinking and research have evolved.

Managing Capital Flows
Managing Capital Flows

Author: Masahiro Kawai

Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing

Published: 2010-01-01

Total Pages: 465

ISBN-13: 184980687X

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Managing Capital Flows provides analyses that can help policymakers develop a framework for managing capital flows that is consistent with prudent macroeconomic and financial sector stability. While capital inflows can provide emerging market economies with invaluable benefits in pursuing economic development and growth, they can also pose serious policy challenges for macroeconomic management and financial sector supervision. The expert contributors cover a wide range of issues related to managing capital flows and analyze the experience of emerging Asian economies in dealing with surges in capital inflows. They also discuss possible policy measures to manage capital flows while remaining consistent with the goals of macroeconomic and financial sector stability. Building on this analysis, the book presents options for workable national policies and regional policy cooperation, particularly in exchange rate management. Containing chapters that bring in international experiences relevant to Asia and other emerging market economies, this insightful book will appeal to policymakers in governments and financial institutions, as well as public and private finance experts. It will also be of great interest to advanced students and academic researchers in finance.

Capital Mobility in Asia
Capital Mobility in Asia

Author: Juthathip Jongwanich

Publisher: Flipside Digital Content Company Inc.

Published: 2018-02-14

Total Pages: 168

ISBN-13: 981478608X

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Ever since the East Asian financial crisis it has been recognized that emerging market economies are vulnerable to both excessive inflows of capital and sudden outflows. This book presents new research on the determinants and effects of capital flows as well as the effectiveness of capital control policies in dealing with volatile capital flows in emerging Asian countries. It examine three issues related to capital movements in Asia: (1) the key factors determining such mobility; (2) the impact of capital movements in a home country, especially on real exchange rates; and (3) the effectiveness of capital account policies.