This paper computes the default probabilities implicit in the prices of Brady bonds of seven developing countries and examines the factors that determine the high cross-correlation of the probability paths. The term structure of U.S. interest rates and the ratio of long-term foreign debt to GDP, together with a developing market index, explain more than 75 percent of the cross-sectional distribution of the default probabilities. The paper also demonstrates a new way to extract sovereign riskiness, implicit in traded bond prices. This allows the above results to be interpreted as explaining the cross-sectional distribution of sovereign riskiness as well.
This paper provides a comprehensive survey of pertinent issues on sovereign debt restructurings, based on a newly constructed database. This is the first complete dataset of sovereign restructuring cases, covering the six decades from 1950–2010; it includes 186 debt exchanges with foreign banks and bondholders, and 447 bilateral debt agreements with the Paris Club. We present new stylized facts on the outcome and process of debt restructurings, including on the size of haircuts, creditor participation, and legal aspects. In addition, the paper summarizes the relevant empirical literature, analyzes recent restructuring episodes, and discusses ongoing debates on crisis resolution mechanisms, credit default swaps, and the role of collective action clauses.
Economic volatility has come into its own after being treated for decades as a secondary phenomenon in the business cycle literature. This evolution has been driven by the recognition that non-linearities, long buried by the economist's penchant for linearity, magnify the negative effects of volatility on long-run growth and inequality, especially in poor countries. This collection organizes empirical and policy results for economists and development policy practitioners into four parts: basic features, including the impact of volatility on growth and poverty; commodity price volatility; the financial sector's dual role as an absorber and amplifier of shocks; and the management and prevention of macroeconomic crises. The latter section includes a cross-country study, case studies on Argentina and Russia, and lessons from the debt default episodes of the 1980s and 1990s.
In a little over one decade, the spread of market-oriented policies has turned the once so-called lesser developed countries into emerging markets. Many forces have been responsible for the tremendous growth in emerging markets. Trends toward market-oriented policies that permit private ownership of economic activities, such as public utilities and telecommunications, are part of the explanation. Corporate restructuring, following the debt crisis of the early 1980's has permitted many emerging market companies to gain international competitiveness. And an essential condition, a basic sea-change in economic policy, has opened up many emerging markets to international investors. This growth in emerging markets has been accompanied by volatility in individual markets, and a sector-wide shock after the meltdown in the Mexican Bolsa and Mexican peso, resulting in heated debate over the nature of these markets. Emerging market capital flows continue to be the subject of intense discussion around the world among investors, academics, and policymakers. Emerging Market Capital Flows examines the issues of emerging market capital flows from several distinct perspectives, addressing a number of related questions about emerging markets.
Sovereign risk and financial crises play a key role in current international economic developments, particularly in the case of economic downturns. As the Asian economic crisis in the late 1990s revealed once again, financial crises are the rule rather than the exception in capitalist economies. The event also revealed that international public debt agreements are contingent claims. In a world of increasing economic interdependencies, the issues of financial crises and country defaults are of critical importance. This volume goes to the heart of the academic discussion on sovereign risk and financial crises by centering on quantitative-empirical aspects, evaluating prominent approaches, and by proposing new methods. Part I of the volume identifies key factors and processes that are central in analyzing sovereign risk while Part II focuses on the determinants and effects of financial crises.
An investor's guide to capitalizing on opportunities in the fixed income markets of emerging economies The fixed income market in emerging countries represents a new and potentially lucrative area of investment for professionals, but with great risk. Investing in Emerging Fixed Income Markets shows investors how to identify solid investment opportunities, assess the risk potential, and develop an investment approach to enhance long-term returns. Contributors to this book, among the leading experts from around the world, share their insights, advice, and knowledge on a range of topics that will help investors make the right decisions and choices when dealing with emerging fixed income markets. This fully updated and revised edition of the Handbook of Emerging Fixed Income and Currency Markets is the best guide for navigating the complicated world of emerging fixed income markets. Efstathia Pilarinu (Strasbourg, France) is a consultant specializing in the derivatives and emerging market fixed income areas. She has worked for several major Wall Street firms, including Salomon Brothers, Bankers Trust, Societe General. She has a doctorate degree and an MBA in finance from the University of Tennessee and an undergraduate degree in mathematics from the University of Patras, Greece. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. is proud to be the publisher of the esteemed Frank J. Fabozzi Series. Comprising nearly 100 titles--which include numerous bestsellers--The Frank J. Fabozzi Series is a key resource for finance professionals and academics, strategists and students, and investors. The series is overseen by its eponymous editor, whose expert instruction and presentation of new ideas have been at the forefront of financial publishing for over twenty years. His successful career has provided him with the knowledge, insight, and advice that has led to this comprehensive series. Frank J. Fabozzi, PhD, CFA, CPA, is Editor of the Journal of Portfolio Management, which is read by thousands of institutional investors, as well as editor or author of over 100 books on finance for the professional and academic markets. Currently, Dr. Fabozzi is an adjunct Professor of Finance at Yale University's School of Management and on the board of directors of the Guardian Life family of funds and the Black Rock complex of funds.
A classic book on credit risk management is updated to reflect the current economic crisis Credit Risk Management In and Out of the Financial Crisis dissects the 2007-2008 credit crisis and provides solutions for professionals looking to better manage risk through modeling and new technology. This book is a complete update to Credit Risk Measurement: New Approaches to Value at Risk and Other Paradigms, reflecting events stemming from the recent credit crisis. Authors Anthony Saunders and Linda Allen address everything from the implications of new regulations to how the new rules will change everyday activity in the finance industry. They also provide techniques for modeling-credit scoring, structural, and reduced form models-while offering sound advice for stress testing credit risk models and when to accept or reject loans. Breaks down the latest credit risk measurement and modeling techniques and simplifies many of the technical and analytical details surrounding them Concentrates on the underlying economics to objectively evaluate new models Includes new chapters on how to prevent another crisis from occurring Understanding credit risk measurement is now more important than ever. Credit Risk Management In and Out of the Financial Crisis will solidify your knowledge of this dynamic discipline.
An integrated approach to the economics of sovereign default Fiscal crises and sovereign default repeatedly threaten the stability and growth of economies around the world. Mark Aguiar and Manuel Amador provide a unified and tractable theoretical framework that elucidates the key economics behind sovereign debt markets, shedding light on the frictions and inefficiencies that prevent the smooth functioning of these markets, and proposing sensible approaches to sovereign debt management. The Economics of Sovereign Debt and Default looks at the core friction unique to sovereign debt—the lack of strong legal enforcement—and goes on to examine additional frictions such as deadweight costs of default, vulnerability to runs, the incentive to “dilute” existing creditors, and sovereign debt’s distortion of investment and growth. The book uses the tractable framework to isolate how each additional friction affects the equilibrium outcome, and illustrates its counterpart using state-of-the-art computational modeling. The novel approach presented here contrasts the outcome of a constrained efficient allocation—one chosen to maximize the joint surplus of creditors and government—with the competitive equilibrium outcome. This allows for a clear analysis of the extent to which equilibrium prices efficiently guide the government’s debt and default decisions, and of what drives divergences with the efficient outcome. Providing an integrated approach to sovereign debt and default, this incisive and authoritative book is an ideal resource for researchers and graduate students interested in this important topic.
This book offers an advanced introduction to models of credit risk valuation, concentrating on firm-value and reduced-form approaches and their application. Also included are new models for valuing derivative securities with credit risk. The book provides detailed descriptions of the state-of-the-art martingale methods and advanced numerical implementations based on multivariate trees used to price derivative credit risk. Numerical examples illustrate the effects of credit risk on the prices of financial derivatives.
A highly-detailed, practical analysis of fixed income management The Advanced Fixed Income and Derivatives Management Guide provides a completely novel framework for analysis of fixed income securities and portfolio management, with over 700 useful equations. The most detailed analysis of inflation linked and corporate securities and bond options analysis available;, this book features numerous practical examples that can be used for creating alpha transfer to any fixed income portfolio. With a framework that unifies back office operations, such as risk management and portfolio management in a consistent way, readers will be able to better manage all sectors of fixed income, including bonds, mortgages, credits, and currencies, and their respective derivatives, including bond and interest rate futures and options, callable bonds, credit default swaps, interest rate swaps, swaptions and inflation swaps. Coverage includes never-before-seen detail on topics including recovery value, partial yields, arbitrage, and more, and the companion website features downloadable worksheets that can be used for measuring the risks of securities based on the term structure models. Many theoretical models of the Term Structure of Interest Rates (TSIR) lack the accuracy to be used by market practitioners, and the most popular models are not mathematically stable. This book helps readers develop stable and accurate TSIR for all fundamental rates, enabling analysis of even the most complex securities or cash flow structure. The components of the TSIR are almost identical to the modes of fluctuations of interest rates and represent the language with which the markets speak. Examine unique arbitrage, risk measurement, performance attribution, and replication of bond futures Learn to estimate recovery value from market data, and the impact of recovery value on risks Gain deeper insight into partial yields, product design, and portfolio construction Discover the proof that corporate bonds cannot follow efficient market hypothesis This useful guide provides a framework for systematic and consistent management of all global fixed income assets based on the term structure of rates. Practitioners seeking a more thorough management system will find solutions in The Advanced Fixed Income and Derivatives Management Guide.
