Beyond the Annual Averages: Impact of Seasonal Temperature on Employment Growth in US Counties
Beyond the Annual Averages: Impact of Seasonal Temperature on Employment Growth in US Counties

Author: Ha Nguyen

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2023-06-30

Total Pages: 34

ISBN-13:

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Using quarterly temperature and employment data between 1990 and 2021, this paper uncovers nuanced evidence on the impact of seasonal temperature within US counties: higher winter temperature increases private sector employment growth while higher summer temperature decreases it. The impacts of higher temperature in mild seasons, fall and spring, are statistically insignificant. Moreover, the negative impact of higher summer temperature persists while the positive impact of higher temperature in the winter is more short-lived. The negative effects of a hotter summer are pervasive and persistent in many sectors: most significantly in “Construction” and “Leisure and Hospitality” but also in “Trade, Transport, and Utilities” and “Financial Activities.” In contrast, the positive effects of a warmer winter are less pervasive. The employment effect of a hotter summer has been more severe in recent decades.

The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity: What are the Channels of Impact?
The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity: What are the Channels of Impact?

Author: Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-06-13

Total Pages: 40

ISBN-13: 1484363027

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Global temperatures have increased at an unprecedented pace in the past 40 years. This paper finds that increases in temperature have uneven macroeconomic effects, with adverse consequences concentrated in countries with hot climates, such as most low-income countries. In these countries, a rise in temperature lowers per capita output, in both the short and medium term, through a wide array of channels: reduced agricultural output, suppressed productivity of workers exposed to heat, slower investment, and poorer health. In an unmitigated climate change scenario, and under very conservative assumptions, model simulations suggest the projected rise in temperature would imply a loss of around 9 percent of output for a representative low-income country by 2100.

Rising Temperature, Nuanced Effects: Evidence from Seasonal and Sectoral Data
Rising Temperature, Nuanced Effects: Evidence from Seasonal and Sectoral Data

Author: Ha Nguyen

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2024-09-20

Total Pages: 31

ISBN-13:

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Using quarterly temperature and sectoral value-added data for a large sample of advanced economies (AEs) and emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), this paper uncovers nuanced effects of temperature on economic activity. For EMDEs, hotter spring and summer temperatures reduce growth in real value-added of manufacturing, and most significantly, of agriculture, while a warmer winter boosts it. For advanced countries (AEs), a hotter spring hurts growth in real value-added of all considered sectors: services, manufacturing and agriculture. For both country groups, the negative effect of a hotter spring is larger and more persistent than the positive effect of a warmer winter. Furthermore, the adverse impacts of hotter temperatures in advanced economies have accentuated in recent decades. This result suggests increased vulnerability to rising temperatures.

Shedding Light on the Local Impact of Temperature
Shedding Light on the Local Impact of Temperature

Author: Da Hoang

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2024-08-16

Total Pages: 30

ISBN-13:

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We use a new dataset to estimate the impact of temperature on economic activity at a more geographically and temporally disaggregated level than the existing literature. Analyzing 30-kilometer grid cells at a monthly frequency, temperature has a negative, highly statistically significant, and quantitatively large effect on output: a 1 °C increase in monthly temperature is associated with a 0.77 percent reduction in nighttime lights, a proxy for local economic activity. The effects of even a temporary increase in temperature persist for almost one year after the shock. Increases in temperature have an especially large, negative impact on growth in poorer countries, indicating that they are more vulnerable to the impact of climate change.

Shock Waves
Shock Waves

Author: Stephane Hallegatte

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2015-11-23

Total Pages: 227

ISBN-13: 1464806748

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Ending poverty and stabilizing climate change will be two unprecedented global achievements and two major steps toward sustainable development. But the two objectives cannot be considered in isolation: they need to be jointly tackled through an integrated strategy. This report brings together those two objectives and explores how they can more easily be achieved if considered together. It examines the potential impact of climate change and climate policies on poverty reduction. It also provides guidance on how to create a “win-win†? situation so that climate change policies contribute to poverty reduction and poverty-reduction policies contribute to climate change mitigation and resilience building. The key finding of the report is that climate change represents a significant obstacle to the sustained eradication of poverty, but future impacts on poverty are determined by policy choices: rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development can prevent most short-term impacts whereas immediate pro-poor, emissions-reduction policies can drastically limit long-term ones.

Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis
Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis

Author: Matthew E. Kahn

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-10-11

Total Pages: 59

ISBN-13: 1513514598

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We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labor productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables—defined as deviations of temperature and precipitation from their historical norms. Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a persistent increase in average global temperature by 0.04°C per year, in the absence of mitigation policies, reduces world real GDP per capita by more than 7 percent by 2100. On the other hand, abiding by the Paris Agreement, thereby limiting the temperature increase to 0.01°C per annum, reduces the loss substantially to about 1 percent. These effects vary significantly across countries depending on the pace of temperature increases and variability of climate conditions. We also provide supplementary evidence using data on a sample of 48 U.S. states between 1963 and 2016, and show that climate change has a long-lasting adverse impact on real output in various states and economic sectors, and on labor productivity and employment.

Safety and Health in Agriculture
Safety and Health in Agriculture

Author:

Publisher: International Labour Organization

Published: 1999

Total Pages: 198

ISBN-13: 9789221115243

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The first discussion of the question of safety and health in agriculture took place at the 88th Session (2000) of the International Labour Conference. Following that discussion, and in accordance with article 39 of the Standing Orders of the Conference, the International Labour Office prepared and communicated to the governments of member States a report containing a proposed Convention and a proposed Recommendation concerning safety and health in agriculture, based on the conclusions adopted by the Conference at its 88th Session. This volume contains the text of these documents.

Communities in Action
Communities in Action

Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2017-04-27

Total Pages: 583

ISBN-13: 0309452961

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In the United States, some populations suffer from far greater disparities in health than others. Those disparities are caused not only by fundamental differences in health status across segments of the population, but also because of inequities in factors that impact health status, so-called determinants of health. Only part of an individual's health status depends on his or her behavior and choice; community-wide problems like poverty, unemployment, poor education, inadequate housing, poor public transportation, interpersonal violence, and decaying neighborhoods also contribute to health inequities, as well as the historic and ongoing interplay of structures, policies, and norms that shape lives. When these factors are not optimal in a community, it does not mean they are intractable: such inequities can be mitigated by social policies that can shape health in powerful ways. Communities in Action: Pathways to Health Equity seeks to delineate the causes of and the solutions to health inequities in the United States. This report focuses on what communities can do to promote health equity, what actions are needed by the many and varied stakeholders that are part of communities or support them, as well as the root causes and structural barriers that need to be overcome.

The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate
The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate

Author: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2022-04-30

Total Pages: 755

ISBN-13: 9781009157971

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of human-induced climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate is the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the observed and projected changes to the ocean and cryosphere and their associated impacts and risks, with a focus on resilience, risk management response options, and adaptation measures, considering both their potential and limitations. It brings together knowledge on physical and biogeochemical changes, the interplay with ecosystem changes, and the implications for human communities. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.