Aggregate Uncertainty and the Supply of Credit
Aggregate Uncertainty and the Supply of Credit

Author: Mr.Fabian Valencia

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-12-02

Total Pages: 26

ISBN-13: 1475513933

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Recent studies show that uncertainty shocks have quantitatively important effects on the real economy. This paper examines one particular channel at work: the supply of credit. It presents a model in which a bank, even if managed by risk-neutral shareholders and subject to limited liability, can exhibit self-insurance, and thus loan supply contracts when uncertainty increases. This prediction is tested with the universe of U.S. commercial banks over the period 1984-2010. Identification of credit supply is achieved by looking at the differential response of banks according to their level of capitalization. Consistent with the theoretical predictions, increases in uncertainty reduce the supply of credit, more so for banks with lower levels of capitalization. These results are weaker for large banks, and are robust to controlling for the lending and capital channels of monetary policy, to different measures of uncertainty, and to breaking the dataset in subsamples. Quantitatively, uncertainty shocks are almost as important as monetary policy ones with regards to the effects on the supply of credit.

Bank Capital
Bank Capital

Author: Ouarda Merrouche

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2010-12-01

Total Pages: 38

ISBN-13: 1455254878

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Using a multi-country panel of banks, we study whether better capitalized banks experienced higher stock returns during the financial crisis. We differentiate among various types of capital ratios: the Basel risk-adjusted ratio; the leverage ratio; the Tier I and Tier II ratios; and the tangible equity ratio. We find several results: (i) before the crisis, differences in capital did not have much impact on stock returns; (ii) during the crisis, a stronger capital position was associated with better stock market performance, most markedly for larger banks; (iii) the relationship between stock returns and capital is stronger when capital is measured by the leverage ratio rather than the risk-adjusted capital ratio; (iv) higher quality forms of capital, such as Tier 1 capital and tangible common equity, were more relevant.

Bank Liquidity Creation and Financial Crises
Bank Liquidity Creation and Financial Crises

Author: Allen N. Berger

Publisher: Academic Press

Published: 2015-11-24

Total Pages: 296

ISBN-13: 0128005319

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Bank Liquidity Creation and Financial Crises delivers a consistent, logical presentation of bank liquidity creation and addresses questions of research and policy interest that can be easily understood by readers with no advanced or specialized industry knowledge. Authors Allen Berger and Christa Bouwman examine ways to measure bank liquidity creation, how much liquidity banks create in different countries, the effects of monetary policy (including interest rate policy, lender of last resort, and quantitative easing), the effects of capital, the effects of regulatory interventions, the effects of bailouts, and much more. They also analyze bank liquidity creation in the US over the past three decades during both normal times and financial crises. Narrowing the gap between the "academic world" (focused on theories) and the "practitioner world" (dedicated to solving real-world problems), this book is a helpful new tool for evaluating a bank's performance over time and comparing it to its peer group. - Explains that bank liquidity creation is a more comprehensive measure of a bank's output than traditional measures and can also be used to measure bank liquidity - Describes how high levels of bank liquidity creation may cause or predict future financial crises - Addresses questions of research and policy interest related to bank liquidity creation around the world and provides links to websites with data and other materials to address these questions - Includes such hot-button topics as the effects of monetary policy (including interest rate policy, lender of last resort, and quantitative easing), the effects of capital, the effects of regulatory interventions, and the effects of bailouts

Bank Capital and Uncertainty
Bank Capital and Uncertainty

Author: Mr.Fabian Valencia

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2010-09-01

Total Pages: 24

ISBN-13: 1455205397

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An important role for bank capital is that of a buffer against unexpected losses. As uncertainty about these losses increases, the theory predicts an increase in the optimal level of bank capital. This paper investigates this implication empirically with U.S. Commercial Banks data and finds statistically significant and robust evidence supporting it. A counterfactual experiment suggests that a decline in uncertainty to the lowest level measured in the sample generates an average reduction in bank capital ratios of slightly over 1 percentage point. However, I also find suggestive evidence that the intensity of this precautionary motive is stronger during recessions. From a policy perspective, these results suggest that the effectiveness of countercyclical capital requirements during bad times will be undermined by banks desire to hold more capital in response to increased uncertainty.

The End of Theory
The End of Theory

Author: Richard Bookstaber

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2019-04-02

Total Pages: 236

ISBN-13: 0691191859

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An in-depth look at how to account for the human complexities at the heart of today’s financial system Our economy may have recovered from the Great Recession—but not our economics. The End of Theory discusses why the human condition and the radical uncertainty of our world renders the standard economic model—and the theory behind it—useless for dealing with financial crises. What model should replace it? None. At least not any version we’ve been using for the past two hundred years. Richard Bookstaber argues for a new approach called agent-based economics, one that takes as a starting point the fact that we are humans, not the optimizing automatons that standard economics assumes we are. Sweeping aside the historic failure of twentieth-century economics, The End of Theory offers a novel perspective and more realistic framework to help prevent today's financial system from blowing up again.

Usability of Bank Capital Buffers: The Role of Market Expectations
Usability of Bank Capital Buffers: The Role of Market Expectations

Author: José Abad

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2022-01-28

Total Pages: 61

ISBN-13: 1616358939

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Following the COVID shock, supervisors encouraged banks to use capital buffers to support the recovery. However, banks have been reluctant to do so. Provided the market expects a bank to rebuild its buffers, any draw-down will open up a capital shortfall that will weigh on its share price. Therefore, a bank will only decide to use its buffers if the value creation from a larger loan book offsets the costs associated with a capital shortfall. Using market expectations, we calibrate a framework for assessing the usability of buffers. Our results suggest that the cases in which the use of buffers make economic sense are rare in practice.

Investment under Uncertainty
Investment under Uncertainty

Author: Robert K. Dixit

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2012-07-14

Total Pages: 484

ISBN-13: 1400830176

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How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending. This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.

Pandora's Risk
Pandora's Risk

Author: Kent Osband

Publisher: Columbia University Press

Published: 2011

Total Pages: 306

ISBN-13: 0231151721

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Author of the acclaimed work Iceberg Risk: An Adventure in Portfolio Theory, Kent Osband argues that uncertainty is central rather than marginal to finance. Markets don't trade mainly on changes in risk. They trade on changes in beliefs about risk, and in the process, markets unite, stretch, and occasionally defy beliefs. Recognizing this truth would make a world of difference in investing. Belittling uncertainty has created a rift between financial theory and practice and within finance theory itself, misguiding regulation and stoking huge financial imbalances. Sparking a revolution in the mindset of the investment professional, Osband recasts the market as a learning machine rather than a knowledge machine. The market continually errs, corrects itself, and makes new errors. Respecting that process, without idolizing it, will promote wiser investment, trading, and regulation. With uncertainty embedded at its core, Osband's rational approach points to a finance theory worthy of twenty-first-century investing.

Handbook of Research on Financial Management During Economic Downturn and Recovery
Handbook of Research on Financial Management During Economic Downturn and Recovery

Author: Teixeira, Nuno Miguel

Publisher: IGI Global

Published: 2021-06-04

Total Pages: 594

ISBN-13: 1799866440

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Times of crisis are unexpected and they bring diverse challenges and opportunities for companies, financial markets, and the economy. On one hand, more risk and uncertainties appear, yet on the other hand, it is an opportunity to reorganize and reinvent the company. It is important for businesses to understand ways to deal with uncertainty and risk in times of economic downturn and what financial strategies and tools can be used to eliminate or reduce the potential negative effects. These effects can reach the company’s financial performance, capital structure, as well as cause financial debt and the availability of cash-flow to companies. However, different financial instruments can sustain the business and deal with the difficulties of payment when sales reduce and uncertainty increases; thus, research is essential in this critical area. When economic downturn affects the financial markets, the role of banks, country dynamics, the economy, and many other facets of the business world, financial management becomes the key for business recovery. The Handbook of Research on Financial Management During Economic Downturn and Recovery shares relevant knowledge on challenges and opportunities caused by crises, such as the pandemic, and the effects on economic and financial arenas. The chapters cover topics such as business models to understand how companies react to pandemic and crises situations, as well as how they change their management and way of conducting business. Other important topics include sustainable development, international financial markets, capital structure changes, uncertainty and risk, and governance and leadership. This book is ideal for shareholders, directors and managers, economists, researchers, academics, practitioners, stakeholders, researchers, academicians, and students interested in knowledge on topics about challenges in the way that companies, financial markets, financial institutions, and governments respond to risk and uncertainty.