The two-speed global economy continues to favor emerging Asian markets. After an early year correction, the region's markets are poised to gain on sound fundamentals. The Asia Capital Markets Monitor reviews emerging Asia's stock, bond, and currency markets and assesses their outlook, risks, and policy implications. This issue includes a special section on financial integration and capital flow volatility in emerging Asia: issues and policies.
The Asian Economic Integration Monitor is a semiannual review of Asia's regional economic cooperation and integration. It covers 48 regional member countries of the Asian Development Bank. This issue includes a special section---Regional Integration: A Balanced View.
The fiscal crisis in Europe continues to cast a shadow on the global economic outlook, and the securities issued by the United States and European nations are losing their status as traditional safe assets and reserve value. As a result, investors and governments are looking to diversify their investment portfolio with emerging markets, particularly Asian bonds. Such renewed interest has led to excessive capital inflows, making the region increasingly vulnerable to external shocks. However, on the other hand, it leads to abundant liquidity in the capital markets, which reduces financing costs and expands investment opportunities. This book analyses this dilemma and proposes that development of local bond markets and achieving greater market depth and interconnectedness is the best bet to prevent the reoccurrence of a currency crisis like 1997. It thus, assesses the progress achieved thus far in capital market integration in Asia, and compares it with its global peers. The study also assesses the degree to which volatility in equity and bond market returns, driven by financial turmoil originating at both the regional and global levels, spills over into emerging Asia domestic equity and bond markets. The results of this analysis indicate that such spill-over significantly impacts both domestic equity and bond markets in the region. This finding suggests that on-going regional capital market integration initiatives should take into account the risk of contagion that regional financial integration presents, and introduce measures for mitigating such risk as a means of ensuring financial stability in the region.
The Asia Economic Monitor is a semiannual review of emerging East Asia's growth and policy issues. It covers the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations; People's Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea; and Taipei,China. This issue includes a special section: Can East Asia Weather Another Global Economic Crisis?
An account of the significant though gradual, uneven, disconnected, ad hoc, and pragmatic innovations in global financial governance and developmental finance induced by the global financial crisis. In When Things Don't Fall Apart, Ilene Grabel challenges the dominant view that the global financial crisis had little effect on global financial governance and developmental finance. Most observers discount all but grand, systemic ruptures in institutions and policy. Grabel argues instead that the global crisis induced inconsistent and ad hoc discontinuities in global financial governance and developmental finance that are now having profound effects on emerging market and developing economies. Grabel's chief normative claim is that the resulting incoherence in global financial governance is productive rather than debilitating. In the age of productive incoherence, a more complex, dense, fragmented, and pluripolar form of global financial governance is expanding possibilities for policy and institutional experimentation, policy space for economic and human development, financial stability and resilience, and financial inclusion. Grabel draws on key theoretical commitments of Albert Hirschman to cement the case for the productivity of incoherence. Inspired by Hirschman, Grabel demonstrates that meaningful change often emerges from disconnected, erratic, experimental, and inconsistent adjustments in institutions and policies as actors pragmatically manage in an evolving world. Grabel substantiates her claims with empirically rich case studies that explore the effects of recent crises on networks of financial governance (such as the G-20); transformations within the IMF; institutional innovations in liquidity support and project finance from the national to the transregional levels; and the “rebranding” of capital controls. Grabel concludes with a careful examination of the opportunities and risks associated with the evolutionary transformations underway.
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has unleashed unparalleled challenges. At the same time, it offers a window to rethink Asia’s most fundamental development policies and strategies to address inequality, socioeconomic vulnerability, and environmental challenges. This publication gathers blogs and short policy pieces contributed by ADB staff and experts in an attempt to tackle immediate challenges and prepare for what may lie beyond the horizon. It covers a broad range of development challenges and highlights the crucial role of rapid adoption of digital technologies, adequate supply of quality infrastructure, disaster risk management, and strengthening regional cooperation for a resilient and sustainable future by shaping post-pandemic conditions.
The Asia Bond Monitor (ABM) reviews recent developments in East Asian local currency bond markets along with the outlook, risks, and policy options. The ABM covers the 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations member countries plus the People's Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; and the Republic of Korea.
This is a unique insider account of the new world of unfettered finance. The author, an Asian regulator, examines how old mindsets, market fundamentalism, loose monetary policy, carry trade, lax supervision, greed, cronyism, and financial engineering caused both the Asian crisis of the late 1990s and the current global crisis of 2008-2009. This book shows how the Japanese zero interest rate policy to fight deflation helped create the carry trade that generated bubbles in Asia whose effects brought Asian economies down. The study's main purpose is to demonstrate that global finance is so interlinked and interactive that our current tools and institutional structure to deal with critical episodes are completely outdated. The book explains how current financial policies and regulation failed to deal with a global bubble and makes recommendations on what must change.
