An Econometric Analysis of Individual Unemployment Duration in West Germany

An Econometric Analysis of Individual Unemployment Duration in West Germany

Author: Eckhard Wurzel

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 252

ISBN-13: 3642502989

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In contemporary labor economics increasing attention is paid to the fact that unemployment is not only a stock but also a flow phenomenon. The present micro-econometric study analyses the impact of important socio-economic characteristics on unemployment duration in West Germany. Based on a search theoretic framework unemployment duration is considered as a stochastic process whose evolution is influenced by economicand demographic variables like unemployment benefits, expected wage offers, training and age. This is modeled by application of the concept of the hazard rate which denotes the conditional exit rate from unemployment over time given elapsed unemployment duration. Contrasting more traditional models a semi-parametric approachis chosen which reduces the danger of mis-specification of the stochastic duration process. This procedure also is particularly suitable for the analysis of grouped observations on unemployment duration typically generated by longitudinal data sets as the German "Socio-Economic Panel" which is utilized for this study. Besides deriving a set of empirical results on unemployment duration in West Germanymethodological issues of duration analysis are considered with particular attention paid to the impact of the sample design. Also, important outcomes from search theory and findings from other hazard rate analysesare surveyed.


Unemployment Dynamics in the United States and West Germany

Unemployment Dynamics in the United States and West Germany

Author: Markus Gangl

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 295

ISBN-13: 3642573347

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In writing this book, I increasingly became aware of the extent to which much of the finest social science research has been devoted to the issue of unemployment. Unemployment rightly is a key issue in the social sciences for search of social and political answers to the economic, social and psychological distress caused by un certainty and macroeconomic change. I was glad to find my own worries shared by eminent and respected scholars: George Akerlof once confessed to pursue the study of unemployment ultimately because of his father's distress from fear of un employment, and Wout Ultee started research on unemployment from the consid eration that parents' talk about unemployment risks should not come to dominate marriage parties or other family occasions. The problem of unemployment is thus hardly confmed to actual loss of income, but one where economic insecurity be gins to undermine the very fabric of society. In consequence, to combat unem ployment should indeed be a foremost issue in societies striving for freedom and justice for their citizenry, yet to succeed obviously requires an understanding of the underlying economic realities. If this study could contribute to this endeavor, all the time spent in writing would seem well spent indeed. Against the significant body of existing social science research on unemploy ment, it seems appropriate to be clear about the scope and limitations of the cur rent study, however.


The Effects of Short-Term Training Measures on the Individual Unemployment Duration in West Germany

The Effects of Short-Term Training Measures on the Individual Unemployment Duration in West Germany

Author: Reinhard Hujer

Publisher:

Published: 2008

Total Pages: 31

ISBN-13:

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Short-term training measures are the most important intervention of German active labor market policy in terms of persons promoted. However, evidence on the impacts of programs is missing. This study analyzes the effects of these programs on the individual unemployment duration in West Germany. By applying a multivariate mixed proportional hazards model, we are able to consider information of the timing of treatment in the unemployment spell as well as observable and unobservable factors to control for selectivity. Moreover, we allow treatment effects to vary over time and take account of heterogeneity in the effects due to individual differences.


Censored Quantile Regressions and the Length of Unemployment Periods in West Germany

Censored Quantile Regressions and the Length of Unemployment Periods in West Germany

Author: Elke Lüdemann

Publisher:

Published: 2008

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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In this paper, we estimate the effect of different macro and micro variables on the distribution of unemployment duration in West Germany using censored quantile regressions. We analyze unemployment periods of more than 91,000 observations from the years 1981 to 1997 drawn from the IAB employment subsample. The latter is an administrative data set that is representative with respect to the socially insured workforce. Surprisingly, we find that the educational degree and variables indicating the macroeconomic environment such as the unemployment rate have a weak effect only. On the other hand, variables reflecting the (un-)employment history of an individual such as the length of tenure, recall to the same employer in the past, recent unemployment and the position in the population income distribution before unemployment have the strongest effects on unemployment duration. We conclude that work history variables are the ones most suitable in characterizing the unemployment duration of an individual. From a methodological point of view, it is interesting that some regression coefficients have a different sign depending on the quantiles of the unemployment duration distribution. This clearly is a violation of the classical proportional hazard assumption which is very common in unemployment duration analysis.


New Estimates of the Duration and Risk of Unemployment for West-Germany

New Estimates of the Duration and Risk of Unemployment for West-Germany

Author: Ralf A. Wilke

Publisher:

Published: 2008

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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This paper analyzes changes in the risk of unemployment and changes in the distribution of unemployment duration for the 26 to 41 years old working population in West-Germany during the 1980ties and 1990ties. The comprehensive IAB employment subsample 1975-1997 is used for the analysis. It contains employment and unemployment trajectories of about 500.000 individuals from West-Germany. The application of flexible nonparametric estimators yields results which are less sensitive to specification errors but they have only a descriptive nature. By conditioning on several observable variables such gender, education, marital status etc. we identify significant differences in the first three quintiles of the unemployment duration distribution. A large share of long term unemployment with only few exits to employment is observed in almost any of the segments. The analysis also considers general evolutions over time and variations along the business cycle. The paper therefore provides a collection of detailed stylized facts about the risk of becoming unemployed and the distribution of unemployment durations in West-Germany during the past two decades.


Unemployment in Theory and Practice

Unemployment in Theory and Practice

Author: Thomas Lange

Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing

Published: 1998

Total Pages: 346

ISBN-13:

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Using a variety of country case studies, this study analyzes the range of potential causes of and cures for unemployment and examines the complex nature of labor markets. Issues considered include the rising number of self-employed in Australia; the labor market prospects for the aged in Germany; particular labor market policies; and the nature of unemployment in countries characterized by economic and social transformation. A final section on wage policy and compensatory pay argues that collective action is a promising policy alternative. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR


Unemployment Durations in West Germany Before and After the Reform of the Unemployment Compensation System During the 1980s

Unemployment Durations in West Germany Before and After the Reform of the Unemployment Compensation System During the 1980s

Author: Bernd Fitzenberger

Publisher:

Published: 2008

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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This paper empirically analyzes the distribution of unemployment durations in West Germany before and after the changes during the mid 1980s in the maximum entitlement periods for unemployment benefits for elderly unemployed. The analysis is based on the comprehensive IAB employment subsample containing register panel data for about 500,000 individuals in West Germany. We introduce two proxies for unemployment, since the data do not involve a precise economic definition of unemployment. We provide a theoretical analysis of the link between the durations of nonemployment and of unemployment durations between jobs. In our empirical analysis we find significant changes in the distributions of nonemployment durations for older unemployed individuals. At the same time, the distribution of unemployment durations between jobs did not change in response to the reforms. Our findings are consistent with an interpretation that many firms and workers used the more beneficial laws as a part of early retirement packages but those workers who were still looking for a job did not reduce their search effort in response to the extension of the maximum entitlement periods. This interpretation is consistent with a simulation of our theoretical model under economically plausible assumptions.


The impact of losing your job

The impact of losing your job

Author: Martin Ehlert

Publisher: Amsterdam University Press

Published: 2016-07-08

Total Pages: 265

ISBN-13: 9048526353

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Losing a job has always been understood as one of the most important causes of downward social mobility in modern societies. And it's only gotten worse in recent years, as the weakening position of workers has made re-entering the labour market even tougher. 'The Impact of Losing Your Job' builds on findings from life course sociology to show clearly just what effects job loss has on income, family life, and future prospects. Key to Ehlert's analysis is a comparative look at the United States and Germany that enables him to show how different approaches to welfare state policies can ameliorate the effects of job loss-but can at the same time make labour insecurity more common.