An Early-detection Index of Fiscal Stress for EU Countries
An Early-detection Index of Fiscal Stress for EU Countries

Author: Katia Berti

Publisher:

Published: 2012

Total Pages: 22

ISBN-13: 9789279229961

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"The financial and economic crisis has generated renewed interest, especially among policy-makers, in early-warning systems that could help identifying fiscal and macro-financial vulnerabilities potentially triggering risks. Against this background, this paper presents an early-warning index of fiscal stress, incorporating fiscal, financial and competitiveness variables, some of which are common to the scoreboard used in the EU for the surveillance of macroeconomic imbalances. Thresholds of fiscal risk are determined, based on the non-parametric signals approach, for the overall index, the two sub-indexes grouping fiscal and financial-competitiveness variables and each individual variable used in the analysis. Values of the overall index beyond its critical threshold pinpoint to potential risks of fiscal stress in the short run, while the analysis at individual variable level allows identifying possible sources of vulnerabilities, which is key to design appropriate risk-mitigating policies. The results obtained highlight the importance of incorporating financial-competitiveness variables in an early-warning system for fiscal stress, as such variables appear to be better "leading indicators" of fiscal stress than fiscal variables are. The results also speak in favour of using an early-warning composite indicator of fiscal stress, rather than looking at the individual variables taken in isolation. Results obtained by applying the proposed methodology to EU countries are presented in the last part of the paper."--Document home page.

Leading Indicators of Fiscal Distress
Leading Indicators of Fiscal Distress

Author: Martin Bruns

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-02-15

Total Pages: 37

ISBN-13: 1498340091

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Early warning systems (EWS) are widely used for assessing countries’ vulnerability to fiscal distress. Most EWS employ a specific set of only fiscal leading indicators predetermined by the researchers, which casts doubt on their robustness. We revisit this issue by using the Extreme Bound Analysis, which allows identifying robust leading indicators of fiscal distress from a large set. Consistent with the theoretical predictions of latest generation crisis models, we find that both fiscal (e.g., fiscal balance, foreign exchange debt) and non-fiscal leading indicators (e.g., output, FX reserves, current account balance, and openness) are robust. In addition, we find that a fiscal vulnerability indicator based on fiscal and non-fiscal leading indicators offers a 29% gain in predictive power compared to a traditional one based on fiscal leading indicators only. It also has good predictive power out of sample, with 78 percent of crises predicted correctly and only 34 percent false alarms issued for the period 2008–15. This suggests that both fiscal and non-fiscal leading indicators should be taken into account when assessing country’s vulnerability to fiscal distress.

Predicting Fiscal Crises
Predicting Fiscal Crises

Author: Ms.Svetlana Cerovic

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-08-03

Total Pages: 42

ISBN-13: 1484372913

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This paper identifies leading indicators of fiscal crises based on a large sample of countries at different stages of development over 1970-2015. Our results are robust to different methodologies and sample periods. Previous literature on early warning sistems (EWS) for fiscal crises is scarce and based on small samples of advanced and emerging markets, raising doubts about the robustness of the results. Using a larger sample, our analysis shows that both nonfiscal (external and internal imbalances) and fiscal variables help predict crises among advanced and emerging economies. Our models performed well in out-of-sample forecasting and in predicting the most recent crises, a weakness of EWS in general. We also build EWS for low income countries, which had been overlooked in the literature.

Predicting Fiscal Crises: A Machine Learning Approach
Predicting Fiscal Crises: A Machine Learning Approach

Author: Klaus-Peter Hellwig

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-05-27

Total Pages: 66

ISBN-13: 1513573586

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In this paper I assess the ability of econometric and machine learning techniques to predict fiscal crises out of sample. I show that the econometric approaches used in many policy applications cannot outperform a simple heuristic rule of thumb. Machine learning techniques (elastic net, random forest, gradient boosted trees) deliver significant improvements in accuracy. Performance of machine learning techniques improves further, particularly for developing countries, when I expand the set of potential predictors and make use of algorithmic selection techniques instead of relying on a small set of variables deemed important by the literature. There is considerable agreement across learning algorithms in the set of selected predictors: Results confirm the importance of external sector stock and flow variables found in the literature but also point to demographics and the quality of governance as important predictors of fiscal crises. Fiscal variables appear to have less predictive value, and public debt matters only to the extent that it is owed to external creditors.

The Palgrave Handbook of Indicators in Global Governance
The Palgrave Handbook of Indicators in Global Governance

Author: Debora Valentina Malito

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2017-11-27

Total Pages: 542

ISBN-13: 3319627074

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This volume brings together both academic and institutional perspectives to examine the production, use and contestation of indicators in global governance. It provides a unique and comprehensive guide to the latest research in the study of indicators and their use in global governance and policy making. The editors provide a guide to the recent vast body of literature and practice on measuring governance and measurement as governance at the global level, and present a state-of-the-art analysis of social science research on indicators at both the transnational and the global level. The Handbook brings together scholars from a variety of disciplines and perspectives, as well as policy-makers from international organisations and non-government organisations working in the field. This volume will be a valuable resource for students and academics in the fields of public policy, administration and management, international relations, political science, law, and globalisation, as well as policy makers and practitioners.

Dynamic Modeling, Empirical Macroeconomics, and Finance
Dynamic Modeling, Empirical Macroeconomics, and Finance

Author: Lucas Bernard

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2016-10-03

Total Pages: 332

ISBN-13: 3319398873

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This edited volume, with contributions by area experts, offers discussions on a range of evolving topics in economics and social development. At center are important issues central to sustainable development, economic growth, technological change, the economics of climate change, commodity markets, long wave theory, non-linear dynamic models, and boom-bust cycles. This is an excellent reference for academic and professional economists interested in emerging areas of empirical macroeconomics and finance. For policy makers and curious readers alike, it is also an outstanding introduction to the economic thinking of those who seek a holistic and all-compassing approach in economic theory and policy. Looking into new data and methodology, this book offers fresh approaches in a post-crisis environment. Set in a profound understanding of the diverse currents within the many traditions of economic thought, this book pushes the established frontiers of economic thinking. It is dedicated to a leading scholar in the areas covered in this book, Willi Semmler.

Policy Learning and the Euro
Policy Learning and the Euro

Author: Jonathan C. Kamkhaji

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2022-09-04

Total Pages: 195

ISBN-13: 3031042646

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This book analyzes the EU’s responses to the sovereign debt crisis that hit the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in 2010. After reviewing the events that led to the crisis, it examines two case studies. The first assesses the short-term policy changes by drawing on a new mechanism, contingent learning. The second case study revolves around the long-term EMU reforms passed during the period 2010-2013. More specifically, it assesses these responses in relation to the institutional scientific publications of the European Central Bank and the DG ECFIN of the Commission. By analyzing both the short and long-term responses to the sovereign debt crisis, the book elucidates how policy learning can be an effective engine for deeper European integration. It will be of interest to scholars and students of EU integration, the EMU, policy learning, and supranational bureaucracies.

Public Sector Economics and the Need for Reforms
Public Sector Economics and the Need for Reforms

Author: Apostolis Philippopoulos

Publisher: MIT Press

Published: 2016-05-20

Total Pages: 389

ISBN-13: 026233237X

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Theoretically and empirically informed studies on the role and efficiency of the public sector, public wage and employment policy, privatization, tax policy, and fiscal sustainability. The public sector has grown substantially in the last fifty years. In the euro area, for example, total government expenditures have been around fifty percent of GDP since the early 2000s, resulting in a growing tax burden or high public debt or both. At the same time, government had intervened in all aspects of economic life, from the provision of public goods and services to product and labor market regulation. Research shows that the effect of government size on economic performance is positive in countries where the public sector is efficient but negative in countries where it is inefficient. In this book, experts from academe and central banking discuss reforms that would make the public sector more efficient and/or more equitable. After a rich review of the public sector reform policy agenda, with particular attention to the role of the public sector and how to improve the provision of public goods and services, the contributors offer theoretically and empirically informed perspectives on some specific policy topics. These include public wage and employment policy, the role of international institutions such as the World Bank in promoting public sector reforms, the optimal mix of tax policy, the measurement of public sector efficiency, and the study of fiscal sustainability. The contributors relate these topics to such deeper issues as individual incentives as well as to policy debates over privatization, and austerity. Contributors Konstantinos Angelopoulos, Stylianos Asimakopoulos, Danilo Ballanti, Roberto A. De Santis, Roberto Dispotico, George Economides, Pedro Gomes, Gabriella Legrenzi, James Malley, Costas Milas, Ilaria Petrarca, Apostolis Philippopoulos, Francesco Porcelli, Roberto Ricciuti, Lodewijk Smets, Peter Birch Sørensen, Petros Varthalitis, Francesco Vidoli

When Do We Repair the Roof? Insights from Responses to Fiscal Crisis Early Warning Signals
When Do We Repair the Roof? Insights from Responses to Fiscal Crisis Early Warning Signals

Author: Mr.Jiro Honda

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-04-06

Total Pages: 37

ISBN-13: 1484350650

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Should policymakers wait for fiscal crisis early warning signals before repairing the roof? We give an answer to this question by investigating the interlinkages between early warning signals for fiscal crisis, policy responses, and policy outcomes, using a broad panel of 119 countries. We find that fiscal adjsutment is a good remedy for countries that act proactively, reducing their likelihood of facing fiscal crisis by up to about 60 percent. For those waiting for wake-up calls from early-detection tools, however, fiscal adjustment may not fully prevent fiscal crisis occurrence, with the chance of fiscal crisis prevention not only smaller (about 30 percent) but also statistically not significant. These findings highlight the prominence of repairing the roof when the sun is shining, particularly in countries with weak institutions.

Measuring Fiscal Vulnerability and Fiscal Stress
Measuring Fiscal Vulnerability and Fiscal Stress

Author: Mr.Emanuele Baldacci

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2011-04-01

Total Pages: 22

ISBN-13: 1455253332

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This paper proposes a set of fiscal indicators to assess rollover risks using the conceptual framework developed by Cottarelli (2011). These indicators provide early warning signals about the manifestation of these risks, giving policymakers the opportunity to adjust policies before extreme fiscal stress events. Two aggregate indices are calculated: an index of fiscal vulnerability and an index of fiscal stress. Results show that both indices are elevated for advanced economies, reflecting unfavorable medium-term debt dynamics and aging-related spending pressures. In emerging economies, solvency risks are lower, but the composition of public debt remains a source of risk and the fiscal position is weaker than before the crisis.