A Literature Review on the Use of Expert opinion in Prbabilistric Risk Analysis
Author:
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Published:
Total Pages: 17
ISBN-13:
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A Literature Review on the Use of Expert Opinion in Probabilistic Risk Analysis
Author: Fumika Ouchi
Publisher:
Published: 2004
Total Pages: 24
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOKProbabilistic Risk Analysis
Author: Tim Bedford
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Published: 2001-04-30
Total Pages: 228
ISBN-13: 9780521773201
DOWNLOAD EBOOKProbabilistic risk analysis aims to quantify the risk caused by high technology installations. Increasingly, such analyses are being applied to a wider class of systems in which problems such as lack of data, complexity of the systems, uncertainty about consequences, make a classical statistical analysis difficult or impossible. The authors discuss the fundamental notion of uncertainty, its relationship with probability, and the limits to the quantification of uncertainty. Drawing on extensive experience in the theory and applications of risk analysis, the authors focus on the conceptual and mathematical foundations underlying the quantification, interpretation and management of risk. They cover standard topics as well as important new subjects such as the use of expert judgement and uncertainty propagation. The relationship of risk analysis with decision making is highlighted in chapters on influence diagrams and decision theory. Finally, the difficulties of choosing metrics to quantify risk, and current regulatory frameworks are discussed.
Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis
Author: Anca M. Hanea
Publisher: Springer Nature
Published: 2021-02-19
Total Pages: 503
ISBN-13: 3030464741
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts’ assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke’s oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.
Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment
Author: Mary A. Meyer
Publisher: SIAM
Published: 2001-01-01
Total Pages: 471
ISBN-13: 0898714745
DOWNLOAD EBOOKExpert judgment is invaluable for assessing products, systems, and situations for which measurements or test results are sparse or nonexistent. Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide takes the reader step by step through the techniques of eliciting and analyzing expert judgment, with special attention given to helping the reader develop elicitation methods and tools adaptable to a variety of unique situations and work areas. The analysis procedures presented in the book may require a basic understanding of statistics and probabilities, but the authors have provided detailed explanations of the techniques used and have taken special care to define all statistical jargon. Originally published in 1991, this book is designed so that those familiar with the use of expert judgment can quickly find the material appropriate for their advanced background.
The World Bank Research Program 2004
Author: World Bank
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Published: 2005
Total Pages: 204
ISBN-13: 9780821364574
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThe World Bank's research is intended to address critical issues and problems facing member governments in developing and transition economies. How can the governments of the poorest countries generate enough revenue to provide the education and health services essential to reducing poverty and promoting growth and development? How can poor countries attract investors to build the infrastructure their economies need? How can they develop systems to bring clean water to the 2 billion people without it today? How can they train teachers and bring to class the 115 million children who have not yet received any education? And how can rich countries be persuaded to lower market barriers, helping to reverse the decline in export prices for poor countries that has left them earning less from trade today than in the 1970s? These are the types of questions that are addressed in this edition of 'The World Bank Research Program: Abstracts from Current Studies'. This volume reports on research projects initiated, under way, or completed from July 2003 through June 2004. It covers 151 research projects on several broad development related issues, including agriculture, health, education, environment, infrastructure, investment climate, and more. The abstract for each project describes the questions addressed, the analytic methods used, the findings to date, and policy implications.
Reliability, Risk, and Safety, Three Volume Set
Author: Radim Bris
Publisher: CRC Press
Published: 2009-08-20
Total Pages: 2472
ISBN-13: 0203859758
DOWNLOAD EBOOKContaining papers presented at the 18th European Safety and Reliability Conference (Esrel 2009) in Prague, Czech Republic, September 2009.Reliability, Risk and Safety Theory and Applications will be of interest for academics and professionals working in a wide range of industrial and governmental sectors, including civil and environmental engineering, energy production and distribution, information technology and telecommunications, critical infrastructures, and insurance and finance.
SYNER-G: Typology Definition and Fragility Functions for Physical Elements at Seismic Risk
Author: K. Pitilakis
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Published: 2014-01-20
Total Pages: 432
ISBN-13: 9400778724
DOWNLOAD EBOOKFragility functions constitute an emerging tool for the probabilistic seismic risk assessment of buildings, infrastructures and lifeline systems. The work presented in this book is a partial product of a European Union funded research project SYNER-G (FP7 Theme 6: Environment) where existing knowledge has been reviewed in order to extract the most appropriate fragility functions for the vulnerability analysis and loss estimation of the majority of structures and civil works exposed to earthquake hazard. Results of other relevant European projects and international initiatives are also incorporated in the book. In several cases new fragility and vulnerability functions have been developed in order to better represent the specific characteristics of European elements at risk. Several European and non-European institutes and Universities collaborated efficiently to capitalize upon existing knowledge. State-of-the-art methods are described, existing fragility curves are reviewed and, where necessary, new ones are proposed for buildings, lifelines, transportation infrastructures as well as for utilities and critical facilities. Taxonomy and typology definitions are synthesized and the treatment of related uncertainties is discussed. A fragility function manager tool and fragility functions in electronic form are provided on extras.springer.com. Audience The book aims to be a standard reference on the fragility functions to be used for the seismic vulnerability and probabilistic risk assessment of the most important elements at risk. It is of particular interest to earthquake engineers, scientists and researchers working in the field of earthquake risk assessment, as well as the insurance industry, civil protection and emergency management agencies.
Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks
Author: Bilal M. Ayyub
Publisher: CRC Press
Published: 2001-06-27
Total Pages: 328
ISBN-13: 9780849310874
DOWNLOAD EBOOKExperts, despite their importance and value, can be double-edged swords. They can make valuable contributions from their deep base of knowledge, but those contributions may also contain their own biases and pet theories. Therefore, selecting experts, eliciting their opinions, and aggregating their opinions must be performed and handled carefully, with full recognition of the uncertainties inherent in those opinions. Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks illuminates those uncertainties and builds a foundation of philosophy, background, methods, and guidelines that helps its readers effectively execute the elicitation process. Based on the first-hand experiences of the author, the book is filled with illustrations, examples, case studies, and applications that demonstrate not only the methods and successes of expert opinion elicitation, but also its pitfalls and failures. Studies show that in the future, analysts, engineers, and scientists will need to solve ever more complex problems and reach decisions with limited resources. This will lead to an increased reliance on the proper treatment of uncertainty and on the use of expert opinions. Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks will help prepare you to better understand knowledge and ignorance, to successfully elicit expert opinions, to select appropriate expressions of those opinions, and to use various methods to model and aggregate opinions.
Foundations of Risk Analysis
Author: Terje Aven
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Published: 2004-01-09
Total Pages: 208
ISBN-13: 0470871237
DOWNLOAD EBOOKEveryday we face decisions that carry an element of risk and uncertainty. The ability to analyse, communicate and control the level of risk entailed by these decisions remains one of the most pressing challenges to the analyst, scientist and manager. This book presents the foundational issues in risk analysis ? expressing risk, understanding what risk means, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The principal aim of the book is to give the reader the knowledge and basic thinking they require to approach risk and uncertainty to support decision making. Presents a statistical framework for dealing with risk and uncertainty. Includes detailed coverage of building and applying risk models and methods. Offers new perspectives on risk, risk assessment and the use of parametric probability models. Highlights a number of applications from business and industry. Adopts a conceptual approach based on elementary probability calculus and statistical theory. Foundations of Risk Analysis provides a framework for understanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty.
