A Global Projection Model for Euro Area Large Economies
A Global Projection Model for Euro Area Large Economies

Author: Zoltan Jakab

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-03-02

Total Pages: 31

ISBN-13: 1498328008

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The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. This paper creates a special version of GPM that includes the four largest Euro Area (EA) countries. The EA countries are more vulnerable to domestic and external demand shocks because adjustments in the real exchange rate between EA countries occur more gradually through inflation differentials. Spillovers from tight credit conditions in each EA country are limited by direct trade channels and small confidence spillovers, but we also consider scenarios where banks in all EU countries tighten credit conditions simultaneously.

A Global Projection Model for Euro Area Large Economies
A Global Projection Model for Euro Area Large Economies

Author: Zoltan Jakab

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-03-02

Total Pages: 31

ISBN-13: 1498399606

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The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. This paper creates a special version of GPM that includes the four largest Euro Area (EA) countries. The EA countries are more vulnerable to domestic and external demand shocks because adjustments in the real exchange rate between EA countries occur more gradually through inflation differentials. Spillovers from tight credit conditions in each EA country are limited by direct trade channels and small confidence spillovers, but we also consider scenarios where banks in all EU countries tighten credit conditions simultaneously.

A Global Projection Model for Euro Area Large Economies
A Global Projection Model for Euro Area Large Economies

Author: Zoltán Jakab

Publisher:

Published: 2015

Total Pages: 31

ISBN-13: 9781498304191

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The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. This paper creates a special version of GPM that includes the four largest Euro Area (EA) countries. The EA countries are more vulnerable to domestic and external demand shocks because adjustments in the real exchange rate between EA countries occur more gradually through inflation differentials. Spillovers from tight credit conditions in each EA country are limited by direct trade channels and small confidence spillovers, but we also consider scenarios where banks in all EU countries tighten credit conditions simultaneously.--Abstract.

A Small Quarterly Multi-country Projection Model with Financial-real Linkages and Oil Prices
A Small Quarterly Multi-country Projection Model with Financial-real Linkages and Oil Prices

Author:

Publisher:

Published: 2008

Total Pages: 76

ISBN-13:

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This is the third of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the US, Euro Area, and Japanese economies that incorporates oil prices and allows us to trace out the effects of shocks to oil prices. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques. We show how the model can be used to construct efficient baseline forecasts that incorporate judgment imposed on the near-term outlook.

Global Economic Prospects, June 2021
Global Economic Prospects, June 2021

Author: World Bank

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2021-08-03

Total Pages: 339

ISBN-13: 1464816662

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The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.

OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2019 Issue 1
OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2019 Issue 1

Author: OECD

Publisher: OECD Publishing

Published: 2019-05-21

Total Pages: 230

ISBN-13: 9264319476

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This issue includes a general assessment, a special chapter on the effects of digitalisation on productivity and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country.

Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model
Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model

Author: Charles Freedman

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2009-11-01

Total Pages: 59

ISBN-13: 1451941714

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This is the fifth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we add Indonesia to a previously estimated small quarterly projection model of the US, euro area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties.

GPM6
GPM6

Author: Ioan Carabenciov

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-04-10

Total Pages: 79

ISBN-13: 1484318943

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This is the sixth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we add three more regions and make a number of other changes to a previously estimated small quarterly projection model of the US, euro area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties.

A Three-Country Macroeconomic Model for Portugal
A Three-Country Macroeconomic Model for Portugal

Author: Alex Pienkowski

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-12-20

Total Pages: 20

ISBN-13: 1513519247

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This paper outlines a simple three-country macroeconomic model designed to focus on the transmission of external shocks to Portugal. Building on the framework developed by Berg et al (2006), this model differentiates between shocks originating from both inside and outside the euro area, as well as domestic shocks, each of which have different implications for Portugal. This framework is also used to consider the dynamics of the Portuguese economy over recent decades. The model, which is designed to guide forecasts and undertake simulations, can easily be modified for use in other small euro area countries.

World Economic Outlook, October 2012
World Economic Outlook, October 2012

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2012-10-08

Total Pages: 251

ISBN-13: 147556290X

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The October 2012 World Economic Outlook (WEO) assesses the prospects for the global recovery in light of such risks as the ongoing euro area crisis and the "fiscal cliff" facing U.S. policymakers. Reducing the risks to the medium-term outlook implies reducing public debt in the major advanced economies, and Chapter 3 explores 100 years of history of dealing with public debt overhangs. In emerging market and developing economies, activity has been slowed by policy tightening in response to capacity constraints, weaker demand from advanced economies, and country-specific factors, but policy improvements have raised these economies' resilience to shocks, an issue explored in depth in Chapter 4.