Nigerian crude oil is being stolen on an industrial scale. Some proceeds are laundered through world financial centers, polluting markets and financial institutions overseas. This report explores what the international community could do about it.
The Handbook of Financial Time Series gives an up-to-date overview of the field and covers all relevant topics both from a statistical and an econometrical point of view. There are many fine contributions, and a preamble by Nobel Prize winner Robert F. Engle.
This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
This book assesses the full impact of oil windfalls on six developing producer countries - Algeria, Ecuador, Indonesia, Nigeria, Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela. This is the first time that the issue has been systematically analysed and related to economics policies and underlying macroeconomic characteristics. The book adopts a broad approach, blending institutional and political aspects with quantitative analysis which includes the results of sophisticated model simulations. It presents new information on how oil discoveries have been used by producer governments, and analyses of the consequences. Finally it concludes that much of the potential benefit to producers has been dissipated, and explains why producers may actually end up worse off despite revenue gains.
In as much as trade fosters economic development, it also exacerbates poverty, especially in the sub Saharan African (SSA) countries. Against this backdrop, this study will increase our understanding of the estimation of non-oil commodity trade flows between Nigeria and the U.S. More specifically, the study aims to analysing the impact of African Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA) on the U.S. imports of non-oil products from Nigeria. The research objectives are woven around the following questions: - What is the nature of Nigeria's and the U.S.'s foreign trade policies with particular reference to non-oil trade? - What are the patterns, magnitude, composition and trends in Nigeria-US non-oil trade? - Which economic sectors possess greatest potential for fostering trade in the non-oil sector between Nigeria and the U.S.? - What is the impact of AGOA on the diversification and growth of non-oil exports in Nigeria? This study adopts the difference-in-differences (DiD) as the research methodology. Within the Nigerian context, DiD intuitively compares the trends in imports of AGOA non-oil products before and after AGOA with the pattern of imports of non-AGOA non-oil products before and after AGOA, controlling for the timing of AGOA, import capacity and economic performance of both U.S. and Nigeria. Using the World Trade Organisation (WTO) Integrated Data Base (IDB), the empirical analysis reveals that AGOA non-oil products increased by as much as 182 percent with the implementation of AGOA, while the non-AGOA non-oil products fell by 76 percent. Conclusively, AGOA has had a considerably positive impact on the Nigerian non-oil sector at the general level. The policy implication of the empirical analysis is the need for the U.S. to expand the product coverage and opportunities of AGOA non-oil products in order for AGOA to achieve its objectives of using trade as a potent tool for promoting economic growth in SSA.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes mobilization of tax revenues in Nigeria. Low non-oil revenue mobilization is affecting the government’s objectives to expand growth-enhancing expenditure priorities, foster higher growth, and comply with its fiscal rule which limits the federal government deficit to no more than 3 percent of GDP. There is significant revenue potential from structural tax measures. A broad-based and comprehensive tax reform program is needed in the short and medium term to address these objectives and generate sustainable revenue growth by broadening the bases of income and consumption taxes, closing loopholes and leakage created by corporate tax holidays and the widespread use of other associated tax expenditures, as well as creating incentives for the subnational tiers of government to raise their own source revenues.
This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.