Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim
Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim

Author: Takatoshi Ito

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2007-11-01

Total Pages: 426

ISBN-13: 0226379019

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Extremely low inflation rates have moved to the forefront of monetary policy discussions. In Asia, a number of countries—most prominently Japan, but also Taiwan and China—have actually experienced deflation over the last fifteen years. Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim explores the factors that have contributed to these circumstances and forecasts some of the potential challenges faced by these nations, as well as some potential solutions. The editors of this volume attribute low inflation and deflation in the region to a number of recent phenomena. Some of these episodes, they argue, may be linked to rapid growth on the supply side of economies. Here, inadequate demand policy can produce what is referred to as a "liquidity trap" in which the expectation of falling prices encourages agents to defer costly purchases, thereby discouraging growth. Low inflation rates can also be traced to the presence of a "zero-lower bound" on interest rates, as well as the inflation-targeting phenomenon. Targets have been set so low, the editors argue, that in some cases a few bad shocks lead to deflation.

China
China

Author: Thomas Orlik

Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA

Published: 2020

Total Pages: 241

ISBN-13: 0190877405

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A provocative perspective on the fragile fundamentals, and forces for resilience, in the Chinese economy, and a forecast for the future on alternate scenarios of collapse and ascendance.

Asset Price Bubbles
Asset Price Bubbles

Author: William Curt Hunter

Publisher: MIT Press

Published: 2005

Total Pages: 650

ISBN-13: 9780262582537

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A study of asset price bubbles and the implications for preventing financial instability.

The Dot-com Bubble, the Bush Deficits, and the U.S. Current Account
The Dot-com Bubble, the Bush Deficits, and the U.S. Current Account

Author: Aart Kraay

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2005

Total Pages: 47

ISBN-13:

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The authors challenge this view here and develop two alternative interpretations. Both are based on the notion that a bubble (the "dot-com" bubble) has been driving the stock market, but differ in their assumptions about the interactions between this bubble and fiscal policy (the "Bush" deficits). The "benevolent" view holds that a change in investor sentiment led to the collapse of the dot-com bubble and the Bush deficits were a welfare-improving policy response to this event. The "cynical" view holds instead that the Bush deficits led to the collapse of the dot-com bubble as the new administration tried to appropriate rents from foreign investors. The authors discuss the implications of each of these views for the future evolution of the U.S. economy and, in particular, its net foreign asset position."

New Perspectives on Asset Price Bubbles
New Perspectives on Asset Price Bubbles

Author: Douglas D. Evanoff

Publisher: Oxford University Press

Published: 2012-02-08

Total Pages: 482

ISBN-13: 0199939403

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This volume critically re-examines the profession's understanding of asset bubbles in light of the global financial crisis of 2007-09. It is well known that bubbles have occurred in the past, with the October 1929 crash as the most demonstrative example. However, the remarkably well-behaved performance of the US economy from 1945 to 2006, and, in particular during the Great Moderation period of 1984 to 2006, assured the economics profession and monetary policymakers that asset bubbles could be effectively managed with little or no real economic impact. The recent financial crisis has now triggered a debate about the emergence of a sequence of repeated bubbles in the Nasdaq market, housing market, credit market, and commodity markets. The realities of the crisis have intensified theoretical modeling, empirical methodologies, and debate on policy issues surrounding asset price bubbles and their potentially adverse economic impact if poorly managed. Taking a novel approach, the editors of this book present five classic papers that represent accepted thinking about asset bubbles prior to the financial crisis. They also include original papers challenging orthodox thinking and presenting new insights. A summary essay highlights the lessons learned and experiences gained since the crisis.

Boom and Bust
Boom and Bust

Author: William Quinn

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2020-08-06

Total Pages: 297

ISBN-13: 1108369359

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Why do stock and housing markets sometimes experience amazing booms followed by massive busts and why is this happening more and more frequently? In order to answer these questions, William Quinn and John D. Turner take us on a riveting ride through the history of financial bubbles, visiting, among other places, Paris and London in 1720, Latin America in the 1820s, Melbourne in the 1880s, New York in the 1920s, Tokyo in the 1980s, Silicon Valley in the 1990s and Shanghai in the 2000s. As they do so, they help us understand why bubbles happen, and why some have catastrophic economic, social and political consequences whilst others have actually benefited society. They reveal that bubbles start when investors and speculators react to new technology or political initiatives, showing that our ability to predict future bubbles will ultimately come down to being able to predict these sparks.

Global Shocks
Global Shocks

Author: Nicholas P. Sargen

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2016-10-05

Total Pages: 198

ISBN-13: 3319411055

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This book, which is written from a practitioner’s perspective, fills the void by providing the reader with a toolkit and guiding principles to manage money when markets are in turmoil. It features ten case studies beginning with the breakdown of the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate system through the current situation in which investors are assessing whether China could become the next bubble. Each chapter discusses how the respective crisis or bubble unfolded at the time, the way policymakers and markets responded, and the optimal strategy for positioning portfolios. The goal is to share these experiences and the lessons from them, so investors will be better prepared for future shocks. The opening chapter explores whether there are common patterns in movements of interest rates and exchange rates that investors can exploit. A conceptual framework is presented that helps explain why this is the case for traditional currency crises, but less so for asset bubbles. The concluding chapter ties the episodes together and considers how the nature of financial crises has evolved since the collapse of Bretton Woods. We cite factors that make it difficult for policymakers and investors to detect problems in advance of an asset bubble. The good news is investors get a second chance to outperform when markets are over-sold; however, they need to formulate a strategy to limit the damage during the sell-off phase and to capitalize on the eventual recovery.

Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller
Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller

Author: Jeff Rubin

Publisher: Random House Canada

Published: 2009-05-22

Total Pages: 306

ISBN-13: 0307373207

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What do subprime mortgages, Atlantic salmon dinners, SUVs and globalization have in common? They all depend on cheap oil. And in a world of dwindling oil supplies and steadily mounting demand around the world, there is no such thing as cheap oil. Oil might be less expensive in the middle of a recession, but it will never be cheap again. Take away cheap oil, and the global economy is getting the shock of its life. From the ageing oilfields of Saudi Arabia and the United States to the Canadian tar sands, from the shopping malls of Dubai to the shuttered auto plants of North America and Europe, from the made-in-China products on the shelves of the Wal-Mart down the road to the collapse of Wall Street giants, everything is connected to the price of oil Interest rates, carbon trading, inflation, farmers’ markets and the wave of trade protectionism washing up all over the world in the wake of various economic stimulus and bailout packages – they all hinge on the new realities of a world where demand for oil eventually outstrips supply. According to maverick economist Jeff Rubin, there will be no energy bailout. The global economy has suffered oil crises in the past, but this time around the rules have changed. And that means the future is not going to be a continuation of the past. For generations we have built wealth by burning more and more oil. Our cars, our homes, our whole world has been getting bigger in the cheap-oil era. Now it is about to get smaller. There will be winners as well as losers as the age of globalization comes to an end. The auto industry will never recover from this oil-induced recession, but other manufacturers will be opening up mothballed factories. Distance will soon cost money, and so will burning carbon – both will bring long-lost jobs back home. We may not see the kind of economic growth that globalization has brought, but local economies will be revitalized, as will our cities and neighborhoods. Whether we like it or not, our world is about to get a whole lot smaller.

Exploring the Mechanics of Chronic Inflation and Hyperinflation
Exploring the Mechanics of Chronic Inflation and Hyperinflation

Author: Fernando de Holanda Barbosa

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2016-10-17

Total Pages: 121

ISBN-13: 331944512X

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This book presents a theoretical framework to explain chronic inflation and hyperinflation. The roots of these two phenomenon are a fiscal monetary regime in which money issues finance the public deficit. Chronic inflation is modeled by using both the old and the new Keynesian model, with a different policy rule. Instead of using the Taylor rule, the central bank policy rule states that money is issued to finance the public deficit. The chronic inflation models take into account the fact that indexation mechanisms adjust prices and wages, yielding the inertial component of inflation. The dynamics of these models can be very unstable under parameter changes or shocks that hit the economy. The previous hyperinflation models surveyed in this book attempt to explain hyperinflation as a bubble phenomenon because they assume a constant real deficit financed by money. The mechanics of hyperinflation models in this book explains hyperinflation by a fiscal crisis, characterized by an increasing fiscal deficit. This fiscal crisis yields an intertemporal budget constraint that is not sustainable. The analysis of the pathology of hyperinflation uses the same tools employed to understand the pathologies of public debt and external debt crises. The hyperinflation model allows a taxonomy of hyperinflations, namely bubble, weak and strong, that can be tested with the inflation tax revenue curve.

Public Policy & Financial Economics: Essays In Honor Of Professor George G Kaufman For His Lifelong Contributions To The Profession
Public Policy & Financial Economics: Essays In Honor Of Professor George G Kaufman For His Lifelong Contributions To The Profession

Author: Douglas D Evanoff

Publisher: World Scientific

Published: 2018-03-08

Total Pages: 313

ISBN-13: 981322956X

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The central goal of this volume was to assemble outstanding scholars and policymakers in the field of financial markets and institutions and have them articulate significant market developments in their particular areas of expertise during the past few decades.Not just a celebratory volume, Public Policy and Financial Economics selected internationally recognized financial economists who have worked with Professor Kaufman during his years of scholarly research, and have a combined mastery of specialized financial markets themes and, very importantly, knowledge of public policies in the areas. All 15 chapters offer unique, innovative, and exciting expositions of several critical topics in financial economics.