2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review — Overview Paper
2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review — Overview Paper

Author: International Monetary

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-05-18

Total Pages: 54

ISBN-13: 1513578421

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Fund surveillance needs to evolve to face the economic and financial challenges that will shape the global landscape for years to come. This paper first takes stock of the current economic and financial landscape. To better serve the membership in this context, Fund surveillance should be prioritized around four key priorities: (i) confronting risks and uncertainties: policymakers will need to actively manage the risks of a highly uncertain outlook; (ii) preempting and mitigating adverse spillovers: shifting patterns of global economic integration will bring about new channels for contagion and policy spillovers; (iii) fostering economic sustainability: a broader understanding of sustainability to better account for the impact of economic and non-economic developments on stability; and (iv) unified policy advice: better accounting for the trade-offs and synergies among different policy combinations in the face of limited policy space and overlapping priorities, tailored to country-specific circumstances. These priorities should further enhance the traction of Fund surveillance.

2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Background Paper on Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Policy Advice in Article IV Consultations
2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Background Paper on Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Policy Advice in Article IV Consultations

Author: International Monetary

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-05-18

Total Pages: 33

ISBN-13: 1513582712

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This paper assesses progress made in deepening and integrating systemic risk analysis and macroprudential policy advice in Article IV consultations following up on the findings of the IEO evaluation. The assessment informs the Comprehensive Surveillance Review and the FSAP Review in their recommendations to strengthen these areas in Article IV consultations. The findings point to notable improvements made since the launch of the macrofinancial mainstreaming initiative, particularly in staff reports for advanced economies and in covering bank and credit-related risks.

2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Background Paper on The Surveillance Priority Confronting Risks and Uncertainties
2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Background Paper on The Surveillance Priority Confronting Risks and Uncertainties

Author: International Monetary

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-05-18

Total Pages: 31

ISBN-13: 1513578618

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The coverage of risks has become more systematic since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC): staff reports now regularly identify major risks and provide an assessment of their likelihood and economic impact, summarized in Risk Assessment Matrices (RAM). But still limited attention is paid to the range of possible outcomes. Also, risk identification is useful only so much as to inform policy design to preemptively respond to relevant risks and/or better prepare for them. In this regard, policy recommendations in surveillance could be richer in considering various risk management approaches. To this end, progress is needed on two dimensions: • Increasing emphasis on the range of potential outcomes to improve policy design. • Encouraging more proactive policy advice on how to manage risks. Efforts should continue to leverage internal and external resources to support risk analysis and advice in surveillance.

2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Modalities for Modernizing Surveillance
2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Modalities for Modernizing Surveillance

Author: International Monetary

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-05-18

Total Pages: 31

ISBN-13: 1513578472

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Modern Fund surveillance needs to be more targeted, topical and timely, better interconnected and better informed. Modernizing surveillance will likely require additional resources, although estimates are highly uncertain at this stage. The paper offers a tentative costing of new proposals with significant budgetary implications. Other proposals could rely on optimizing processes, while others are underway and funded separately; the resource implications of yet others are being picked up in context of other workstreams. Estimates do not include short-term transition costs or pressures on support services and are subject to a significant degree of uncertainty. A flexible approach to implementing the new modalities, characterized by experimentation and learning-by- doing—a “sandbox” for new modalities—is proposed.