This paper explores the connection between interest rates in major industrial countries and annual real output growth in other countries. The results show that high large-country interest rates have a contractionary effect on annual real GDP growth in the domestic economy, but that this effect is centered on countries with fixed exchange rates. The paper then examines the potential channels through which large-country interest rates affect small economies. The direct monetary policy channel is the most likely channel when compared with other possibilities, such as a general capital market effect or a trade effect.
It is often argued that many economies are affected by conditions in foreign countries. This paper explores the connection between interest rates in major industrial countries and annual real output growth in other countries. The results show that high foreign interest rates have a contractionary effect on annual real GDP growth in the domestic economy, but that this effect is centered on countries with fixed exchange rates. The paper then examines the potential channels through which major-country interest rates affect other economies. The effect of foreign interest rates on domestic interest rates is the most likely channel when compared with other possibilities, such as a trade effect.
This paper explores the connection between interest rates in major industrial countries and annual real output growth in other countries. The results show that high large-country interest rates have a contractionary effect on annual real GDP growth in the domestic economy, but that this effect is centered on countries with fixed exchange rates. The paper then examines the potential channels through which large-country interest rates affect small economies. The direct monetary policy channel is the most likely channel when compared with other possibilities, such as a general capital market effect or a trade effect.
Emerging market countries have enjoyed an exceptionally favorable economic environment throughout 2004, 2005, and early 2006. In particular, accommodative U.S. monetary policy in recent years has helped create an environment of low interest rates in international capital markets. However, if world interest rates were to take a sudden upward course, this would lead to less hospitable financing conditions for emerging market countries. The purpose of this paper is to measure the effects of world interest rate shocks on real activity in Thailand. The analysis incorporates balance sheet related credit market frictions into the IMF’s Global Economy Model (GEM) and finds that Thailand would best minimize the adverse effects of rising world interest rates if it were to follow a flexible exchange rate regime.
This paper studies the heterogeneous response across countries of local currency interest rates to foreign and domestic factors, thus contributing to the discussion on the policy trilemma in international economics. On average, floaters appear to be less affected by the U.S. in the short run (up to about one year). However, there is large cross-country heterogeneity in the response: floaters that care less about domestic objectives, exhibit stronger fear of floating, or show higher co-cyclicality with the U.S., respond more to foreign rates. This suggests that floating does not necessarily imply a lack of response of local policy rates to foreign ones, but seems to allow independence when needed. Moreover, the effect of foreign rates on the short end of the local interest rate curve seems to operate mainly via the foreign influence on local policy rates, thus suggesting that central banks may be themselves the source of conduit of the “global credit cycle” discussed by Rey (2014). At the same time, most countries face the equivalent of a “Greenspan conundrum” as their long term rates are mainly influenced by foreign factors.
Essay from the year 2021 in the subject Economics - Case Scenarios, grade: 14, , language: English, abstract: This paper will focus on the impact of domestic interest rate and political instability on FDI of Pakistan using time series data from 1989-2019 in case of Pakistan. The findings are that political instability has a major impact for short time period and in long time period but in case of interest rate there is a negative minimal impact on FDI in both span of time. This can be because when you have lower nominal interest rate, thenyour domestic investor will benefit and country GDP will rise.
In recent years, the appropriate level and structure of interest tates have come to be seen as major issues in connection with stabilization programs undertaken by members. These issues arise from consideration both on the demand side, as interest rates affect the magnitude of aggregate demand, and on the supply side, as they influence the volume and quality of investment and, thus, the growth of output.
Seminar paper from the year 2016 in the subject Economics - Macro-economics, general, grade: 2,3, University of applied sciences, Munich, language: English, abstract: The value of a nation’s currency and its exchange rate is a key indicator for the performance of an economy’s import and export. This assignment evaluates the different impacts of macroeconomic policies on the exchange rate, the following research also draws attention to the fact that economists have had mixed findings of the effects of macroeconomic policies on the exchange rate. The use of secondary research and the AA-DD model will further enhance the various factors that are responsible to appreciate or depreciate a currency. The results of this assignment show that; fixed and floating exchange rates, as well as the MPC score, have significant impacts on the efficiency of macroeconomic policies altering the exchange rate. Macroeconomic policies trigger disposable income, prices and interest rates within an economy, which consequently affects the foreign exchange market leading to a change in the exchange rate. Especially in the field of a floating exchange rate economy, the impacts of fiscal but also monetary policies can be shown, fixed exchange rates disable economies to use monetary policies due to the fact that these will with high certainty have an impact on the exchange rate.
More than two years ago the European Central Bank (ECB) adopted a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) to achieve its price stability objective. Negative interest rates have so far supported easier financial conditions and contributed to a modest expansion in credit, demonstrating that the zero lower bound is less binding than previously thought. However, interest rate cuts also weigh on bank profitability. Substantial rate cuts may at some point outweigh the benefits from higher asset values and stronger aggregate demand. Further monetary accommodation may need to rely more on credit easing and an expansion of the ECB’s balance sheet rather than substantial additional reductions in the policy rate.
