Shadows of Things Past and Images of the Future: Lessons for the Insurgencies in Our Midst

Shadows of Things Past and Images of the Future: Lessons for the Insurgencies in Our Midst

Author: Max G. Manwaring

Publisher: DIANE Publishing

Published:

Total Pages: 57

ISBN-13: 142891045X

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This monograph begins with a short discussion of contemporary insurgency. It makes the argument that, in studying terror war, guerrilla war, or any other common term for insurgency war, we find these expressions mischaracterize the activities of armed groups that are attempting to gain political control of a nation-state. The fact is that these organizations are engaged in a highly complex political-psychological war. Three key harbinger cases from which the first contemporary lessons of modern insurgency should have been learned provide the basis for the argument--Peru (1962 to date), Italy (1968-82), and Argentina (1969-79). Given that these kinds of conflict--or mutations--are likely to continue to challenge U.S. and other global leadership over the next several years, it is important to understand them. In this connection, it is also important to understand that the final results of insurgency or counterinsurgency are never determined by arms alone. Rather, a successful counterinsurgency depends on a holistic process that relies on civilian and military agencies and contingents working together in an integrated fashion to achieve a mutually agreed political-strategic end game.


Shadows of Things Past and Images of the Future

Shadows of Things Past and Images of the Future

Author: Max G. Manwaring

Publisher:

Published: 2004-11-30

Total Pages: 58

ISBN-13: 9781463505066

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This monograph begins with a short discussion of contemporary insurgency. It argues that in studying terror war, guerrilla war, or any other common term for insurgency war, we find these expressions mischaracterize the activities of armed groups that are attempting to gain political control of a state. These organizations are engaged in a highly complex political act--political war. Given that this type of conflict is likely to challenge U.S. and other global leadership over the next several years, it is important to understand that the final results of insurgency or counterinsurgency are never determined by arms alone. Rather, the results depend on winning the political support of the people. In these terms, it is helpful to examine some key harbinger case studies from which the first contemporary lessons of modern insurgency were learned. They stress: (1) insurgencies may be populist-nationalist as well as Marxist-Maoist oriented, (2) they may be urban as well as rural-based, and (3) they may be highly political-psychological as well as military conflicts. Additionally, this monograph emphasizes some broader lessons learned. Among other things, the Argentine case provides a basis from which to understand better the problem of current and future radical populism and urban insurgency. All three cases--but especially the Peruvian case--invoke the fundamental strategic political issue of state failure. The Italian case emphasizes the issue of military vs. political victory, and its implications for the future of the state. This monograph concludes with the idea that the complex realities of contemporary political-insurgency wars must be understood as holistic processes that rely on various civilian and military agencies and contingents working together in an integrated fashion to achieve mutually agreed political-strategic ends. In this connection, at a minimum, three strategic-level imperatives are needed to begin to deal effectively with unconventional conflict situations. They are: (1) civil-military and military-to-military dialogue regarding viable security and stability, (2) fundamental education and understanding requirements, and (3) the strategic application of U.S. military power. The associated recommendations take us beyond doing "something" for something's sake to the cooperative, holistic, and long-term planning and implementation of the strategic ends, ways, and means that directly support the achievement of a political endgame.


Social Science for Counterterrorism

Social Science for Counterterrorism

Author: Paul K. Davis

Publisher: Rand Corporation

Published: 2009

Total Pages: 541

ISBN-13: 0833047604

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Employs an interdisciplinary, social science approach to various counterterrorism questions, problems, and policies.


Urban Guerrilla Warfare

Urban Guerrilla Warfare

Author: Anthony Joes

Publisher: University Press of Kentucky

Published: 2007-04-20

Total Pages: 232

ISBN-13: 0813172233

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Guerrilla insurgencies continue to rage across the globe, fueled by ethnic and religious conflict and the easy availability of weapons. At the same time, urban population centers in both industrialized and developing nations attract ever-increasing numbers of people, outstripping rural growth rates worldwide. As a consequence of this population shift from the countryside to the cities, guerrilla conflict in urban areas, similar to the violent response to U.S. occupation in Iraq, will become more frequent. Urban Guerrilla Warfare traces the diverse origins of urban conflicts and identifies similarities and differences in the methods of counterinsurgent forces. In this wide-ranging and richly detailed comparative analysis, Anthony James Joes examines eight key examples of urban guerrilla conflict spanning half a century and four continents: Warsaw in 1944, Budapest in 1956, Algiers in 1957, Montevideo and São Paulo in the 1960s, Saigon in 1968, Northern Ireland from 1970 to 1998, and Grozny from 1994 to 1996. Joes demonstrates that urban insurgents violate certain fundamental principles of guerrilla warfare as set forth by renowned military strategists such as Carl von Clausewitz and Mao Tse-tung. Urban guerrillas operate in finite areas, leaving themselves vulnerable to encirclement and ultimate defeat. They also tend to abandon the goal of establishing a secure base or a cross-border sanctuary, making precarious combat even riskier. Typically, urban guerrillas do not solely target soldiers and police; they often attack civilians in an effort to frighten and disorient the local population and discredit the regime. Thus urban guerrilla warfare becomes difficult to distinguish from simple terrorism. Joes argues persuasively against committing U.S. troops in urban counterinsurgencies, but also offers cogent recommendations for the successful conduct of such operations where they must be undertaken.


Air Power in the New Counterinsurgency Era

Air Power in the New Counterinsurgency Era

Author: Alan Vick

Publisher: Rand Corporation

Published: 2006

Total Pages: 205

ISBN-13: 0833039636

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United States has engaged in counterinsurgency around the globe for more than a century. But insurgencies have rarely been defeated by outside powers. Rather, the afflicted nation itself must win the war politically and militarily, and the best way to help is to offer advice, training, and equipment. Air power, and the U.S. Air Force, can play an important role in such efforts, which suggests making them an institutional priority.


Mexico Is Not Colombia

Mexico Is Not Colombia

Author: Christopher Paul

Publisher: Rand Corporation

Published: 2014-06-25

Total Pages: 283

ISBN-13: 0833084445

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Despite the scope of the threat they pose to Mexico’s security, violent drug-trafficking organizations are not well understood, and optimal strategies to combat them have not been identified. While there is no perfectly analogous case to Mexico’s current security situation, historical case studies may offer lessons for policymakers as they cope with challenges related to violence and corruption in that country.


Leadership Decapitation

Leadership Decapitation

Author: Jenna Jordan

Publisher: Stanford University Press

Published: 2019-11-12

Total Pages: 369

ISBN-13: 1503610675

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One of the central pillars of US counterterrorism policy is that capturing or killing a terrorist group's leader is effective. Yet this pillar rests more on a foundation of faith than facts. In Leadership Decapitation, Jenna Jordan examines over a thousand instances of leadership targeting—involving groups such as Hamas, al Qaeda, Shining Path, and ISIS—to identify the successes, failures, and unintended consequences of this strategy. As Jordan demonstrates, group infrastructure, ideology, and popular support all play a role in determining how and why leadership decapitation succeeds or fails. Taking heed of these conditions is essential to an effective counterterrorism policy going forward.


Counterinsurgency in a Test Tube

Counterinsurgency in a Test Tube

Author: Russell W. Glenn

Publisher: Rand Corporation

Published: 2007-04-18

Total Pages: 189

ISBN-13: 0833042637

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The Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (RAMSI), which began on July 24, 2003, has been a remarkable success, in part because of the consistency of its message, the strength of its leadership, and its uncommon support for, rather than overt control of, the Solomon Islands government and policing capability. This study reviews RAMSI operations through the lens of a broader application to current and future counterinsurgency efforts.


Dirty Wars

Dirty Wars

Author: Simon Robbins

Publisher: The History Press

Published: 2016-10-06

Total Pages: 568

ISBN-13: 0752479016

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‘Who is the enemy?’ This is the question most asked in modern warfare; gone are the set-piece conventional battles of the past. Once seen as secondary to more traditional conflicts, irregular warfare (as modified and refashioned since the 1990s) now presents a major challenge to the state and the bureaucratic institutions which have dominated the twentieth century, and to the politicians and civil servants who formulate policy.Twenty-first-century conflict is dominated by counterinsurgency operations, where the enemy is almost indistinguishable from innocent civilians. Battles are gunfights in jungles, deserts and streets; winning ‘hearts and minds’ is as important as holding territory. From struggles in South Africa, the Philippines and Ireland to operations in Iraq, Afghanistan and Chechnya, this book covers the strategy and doctrine of counterinsurgency, and the factors which ensure whether such operations are successful or not. Recent ignorance of central principles and the emergence of social media, which has shifted the odds in favour of the insurgent, have too often resulted in failure, leaving governments and their security forces embedded in a hostile population, immersed in costly and dangerous nation-building.


The Handbook of Latin American and Caribbean Intelligence Cultures

The Handbook of Latin American and Caribbean Intelligence Cultures

Author: Florina Cristiana Matei

Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield

Published: 2022-06-27

Total Pages: 415

ISBN-13: 153816082X

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The Handbook of Latin American and Caribbean Intelligence Cultures explores the contemporary efforts of Latin American and Caribbean nations to develop an intelligence culture. Specifically, it analyzes these countries’ efforts to democratize their intelligence agencies (i.e. to develop intelligence services that are both transparent and effective) to convert the former military regimes’ repressive security apparatuses into democratic intelligence communities—a rather paradoxical task, considering that democracy calls for political neutrality, transparency, and accountability, while effective intelligence services must operate in secrecy. Indeed, even the most successful democracies face this conundrum of democracy and intelligence; Latin America and the Caribbean region is not alone in facing this challenge. The legacy of the repressive military regimes or brutal civil wars—which have inspired in the public a general disdain toward intelligence services due to the grave human rights abuses—coupled with politicians’ persistent lack of interest or expertise in intelligence matters complicate the region’s quest for a proper balance between the competing demands of democracy and intelligence. This volume details the attempts of the region’s countries to overcome these obstacles and pursue democratic intelligence institution building—transforming the legal basis for intelligence; establishing democratic control and oversight mechanisms; and fostering intelligence openness, transparency, and outreach.