An Econometric Analysis of Farmland Values in Western Canada
An Econometric Analysis of Farmland Values in Western Canada

Author: Robert Gilmore Roehle

Publisher:

Published: 1971

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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Interest for this research was initiated by the threefold increase witnessed in rural land values since the early 1950's. Society in general and farmers, mortgage lenders, tax assessors and public policy makers in particular are concerned with these price increases because of their economic, social and political implications. The major objective of this study was to identify the more important factors influencing farmland prices, develop a methodology to measure their individual effect on market value and, if possible, project future land prices for alternative values of these determining variables. Before hypotheses concerning sources of price variation were generated or functional relationships specified, familiarization with the nature and structural characteristics of the farmland market itself was accomplished by personal observation of the market in operation, discussions with participants (buyers and sellers) and a fairly exhaustive review of major studies on land values in both the United States and Canada. Two econometric models of the farmland market were subsequently formulated -- a cross sectional or static model- and a time series or dynamic model. Four basic hypotheses were tested -- the market value of farmland is positively related, to (a) soil productivity, (b) expected net farm income from land, (c) long term farm credit availability and (d) technological advance in the agricultural industry. Land value data for the empirical analysis were obtained from two independent sources -- (a) Manitoba Crop District 3 and 10 sales data (1958 - 1970) and (b) D.B.S. estimates of the average annual "value per acre of occupied land" for each of Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta. (1928 - 1969) Both models were fitted. to the economic data by ordinary least-squares linear regression ...

An Econometric Analysis of Farmland Values in Western Canada
An Econometric Analysis of Farmland Values in Western Canada

Author: Robert Gilmore Roehle

Publisher: 1971 [c1972]

Published: 1971

Total Pages: 268

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Interest for this research was initiated by the threefold increase witnessed in rural land values since the early 1950's. Society in general and farmers, mortgage lenders, tax assessors and public policy makers in particular are concerned with these price increases because of their economic, social and political implications. The major objective of this study was to identify the more important factors influencing farmland prices, develop a methodology to measure their individual effect on market value and, if possible, project future land prices for alternative values of these determining variables. Before hypotheses concerning sources of price variation were generated or functional relationships specified, familiarization with the nature and structural characteristics of the farmland market itself was accomplished by personal observation of the market in operation, discussions with participants (buyers and sellers) and a fairly exhaustive review of major studies on land values in both the United States and Canada. Two econometric models of the farmland market were subsequently formulated -- a cross sectional or static model- and a time series or dynamic model. Four basic hypotheses were tested -- the market value of farmland is positively related, to (a) soil productivity, (b) expected net farm income from land, (c) long term farm credit availability and (d) technological advance in the agricultural industry. Land value data for the empirical analysis were obtained from two independent sources -- (a) Manitoba Crop District 3 and 10 sales data (1958 - 1970) and (b) D.B.S. estimates of the average annual "value per acre of occupied land" for each of Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta. (1928 - 1969) Both models were fitted. to the economic data by ordinary least-squares linear regression...

A Spatial Econometric Estimation Model for U.S. Farmland Values
A Spatial Econometric Estimation Model for U.S. Farmland Values

Author: Yingzong Sun

Publisher:

Published: 2014

Total Pages: 60

ISBN-13:

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This study investigates the economic problem of recent booming farmland values. An income capitalization model is estimated to conduct farmland valuations using state-level data from 1980 to 2011. Explanatory variables include expected market returns, government payments, production risk, urban influence, interest rates, and ethanol production scale. Spatial models are introduced to control for spatial dependencies on farmland values, and multiple tests are conducted to explore the most appropriate model for farmland valuation. Furthermore, the thesis offered suggestions for future researches and to provide a proposal in forecasting future farmland values according to the changes in the determining factors.

Essays in Financial Econometric Investigations of Farmland Valuations
Essays in Financial Econometric Investigations of Farmland Valuations

Author: Jin Xu

Publisher:

Published: 2013

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

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This dissertation consists of three essays wherein tools of financial econometrics are used to study the three aspects of farmland valuation puzzle: short-term boom-bust cycles, overpricing of farmland, and inconclusive effects of direct government payments. Essay I addresses the causes of unexplained short-term boom-bust cycles in farmland values in a dynamic land pricing model (DLPM). The analysis finds that gross return rate of farmland asset decreases as the farmland asset level increases, and that the diminishing return function of farmland asset contributes to the boom-bust cycles in farmland values. Furthermore, it is mathematically proved that land values are potentially unstable under diminishing return functions. We also find that intertemporal elasticity of substitution, risk aversion, and transaction costs are important determinants of farmland asset values. Essay II examines the apparent overpricing of farmland by decomposing the forecast error variance of farmland prices into forward looking and backward looking components. The analysis finds that in the short run, the forward looking Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) portion of the forecast errors are significantly higher in a boom or bust stage than in a stable stage. This shows that the farmland market absorbs economic information in a discriminative manner according to the stability of the market, and the market (and actors therein) responds to new information gradually as suggested by the theory. This helps to explain the overpricing of farmland, but this explanation works primarily in the short run. Finally, essay III investigates the duel effects of direct government payments and climate change on farmland values. This study uses a smooth coefficient semi-parametric panel data model. The analysis finds that land valuation is affected by climate change and government payments, both through discounted revenues and through effects on the risk aversion of land owners. This essay shows that including heterogeneous risk aversion is an efficient way to mitigate the impacts of misspecifications in a DLPM, and that precipitation is a good explanatory variable. In particular, precipitation affects land values in a bimodal manner, indicating that farmland prices could have multiple peaks in precipitation due to adaption through crop selection and technology alternation. The electronic version of this dissertation is accessible from http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/150974